Creeperian annexation of Navidad and San Juan Diego

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Sequoyan border region referendums
Flag of Sequoyah.png

← 2021 31 October 2022

  • Do you approve of annexation to the
  • Holy Traditionalist Empire of Creeperopolis?
LocationSequoyah
Voting systemFirst-past-the-post
OutcomeNavidad and San Juan Diego voted for annexation to Creeperopolis

Results by district
Results by district
Arapaho
Join Creeperopolis
15.34%
Remain with Sequoyah
84.66%
Eastern Sequoyah
Join Creeperopolis
55.99%
Remain with Sequoyah
44.01%
Itse Ulagohisdi
Join Creeperopolis
31.47%
Remain with Sequoyah
68.53%

Referendums were held on 31 October 2022 in the Sequoyan provinces of Arapaho, Eastern Sequoyah, and Itse Ulagohisdi which determined wether Sequoyan territory would be annexed by Creeperopolis. The referendums were scheduled as a part of an agreement between the Creeperian and Sequoyan governments made in June 2022 to bring an end to the Cooperation and Development Coalition's (CODECO) military occupation of the country, which had been ongoing since December 2020 when CODECO forces deposed interim President Diwali Wesa.

The Sequoyan ruling class and many Sequoyans not subject to potential annexation believed the the referendums were a "necessary sacrifice" to bring an end to the country's two year-long military occupation and readmission to CODECO, and many Creeperans viewed them as a way to reunite with their ancestral homeland. Meanwhile, the vast majority of Sequoyans—both white and tribal—subject to potential annexation were strongly opposed to the referendums. Leftist Creeperans also opposed the annexation, who feared that the Creeperian government would crackdown on their political activism if they came under its jurisdiction.

Polling indicated that the referendums in Arapaho and Itse Ulagohisdi would be overwhelmingly against annexation, while those in Eastern Sequoyah indicated a tight result. The final results resulted in the districts of Navidad and San Juan Diego voting for annexation to Creeperopolis, while the remaining districts voted to remain with Sequoyah. The polling in Arapaho and Itse Ulagohisdi were heavily criticized after the referendum, as they almost universally indicated the margin of victory against annexation would be above 90 points, while the results showed only 60.32 and 37.06 point margins for Arapaho and Itse Ulagohisdi, respectively.

Both the Creeperian and Sequoyan governments assured that the referendums were free, fair, and impartial, and that there was not any sort of foreign interference in the electoral process. Despite this, several foreign governments have condemned the referendums as "illegitimate" and "imperialistic", claiming that there was fraud and interference present throughout the process. Additionally, some foreign analysts questioned the legality of the referendums, viewing them as a violation of Sequoyah's sovereignty. Meanwhile, several of Creeperopolis' allies praised the results of the referendums, and congratulated both the Creeperian and Sequoyan governments. On 5 December 2022, both Navidad and San Juan Diego were officially annexed by Creeperopolis and organized into the department of Nuevo Amanecer.

Background

Historical Creeperian territories

Comandante Vázquez Luján enel Cañón Grande (2017) depicting Vázquez Luján's expedition reaching the Promethian Canyon in 1433.

In 1431, a Creeperian military expedition commanded by Gonzalo Vázquez Luján established the city of San Juan (now known as San Juan Diego) along the coast of the Asequi Strait near the island of Susla. The foundation of the city, as well as the Captaincy General of San Juan, was a part of Creeperopolis' growing colonial ambitions which followed the voyages and landings of Cristóbal Colón Cámarillo in the San Carlos Islands in the 1380s which led to the establishment of a colony there.

Vázquez Luján attempted to convert the local population there to Creeperian Catholicism and trade with them, however, he disappeared in 1435 while on an expedition west which led to him being succeeded by Armando Rivera Obregón. Rivera Obregón's declaration as Vázquez Luján's successor caused tension with Vázquez Luján's son, José Vázquez Valladares, which led to the outbreak of a civil war which lasted from 1457 to 1460. The civil war significantly weakened the captaincy general, and the colony was ended in 1518 with the fall of San Juan to the Sequoyan Empire.

After the conquest of the Captaincy General of San Juan by the Sequoyan Empire, the city of San Juan Diego and the surrounding area became a part of the modern state of Sequoyah. Although both white and tribal Sequoyans settled in the former territory of the captaincy general, a large Creeperian diaspora remained, and they became a critical voting demographic upon the establishment of a Sequoyan republic, as the country's two largest political parties, the Federalist Party (NIP) and the Whig Party (GP) sought to gain the Creeperian vote in subsequent presidential and legislative elections throughout the 19th, 20th, and 21st centuries. The region has also produced several prominent Sequoyan politicians of Creeperian descent, including two Sequoyan vice presidents: Ricardo Havana Guevera (1954–1966) and Ernesto Castro Aldana (2022–present).

CODECO military occupation

On 5 December 2020, the Cooperation and Development Coalition (CODECO) launched a military invasion in Sequoyah following months of political instability and shortly after the beginning of the Sequoyan Civil War. CODECO installed Atohi Dustu as the country's provisional president.[1] CODECO helped Dustu depose interim President Diwali Wesa[2] and defeat rebel soldiers who were loyal to deposed President-Elect Usti Atagulkalu. Dustu declared an end to the war on 21 May 2021 and canceled a scheduled constitutional referendum.[3]

With the results of the October 2020 presidential election being annulled, new elections were held in May 2022 to determine the country's future president. Prior to the election, in February 2022, the CODECO-backed Sequoyan government came to an agreement for a new constitution and a new government system, which would establish a dual-presidential system, where the country would have two presidents: one white president, and one tribal president. In the May 2022 election, Dustu was elected as the country's white president, and Cheyall Chief Wohehiv Avonaco was elected as the country's tribal president.[4]

1 June Agreement

In his presidential campaign, Dustu expressed his intention to attain Sequoyah's readmission to CODECO, as Sequoyah had originally been a member from April to May 2020 until it was evicted for legalizing slavery.[5][6] On 1 June 2022, the governments of Sequoyah and Creeperopolis met in Asequi, the capital of Sequoyah, and came to an agreement which would lead to Sequoyah's readmission to CODECO and bring an end to the two year-long military occupation.[7]

A part of the agreement was that the territories administered by Creeperopolis in the Administrative Border Region (RAFSSE) would hold referendums to determine wether the provinces or parts of the provinces of Arapaho, Eastern Sequoyah, and Itse Ulagohisdi desired annexation to Creeperopolis. This clause of the agreement was strongly criticized by several foreign politicians, activists, and non-Creeperian Sequoyans who lived in the areas subject to the referendums.[7]

Electoral process

The present Sequoyan provincial districts were used to determine which portions of the provinces of Arapaho, Eastern Sequoyah, and Itse Ulagohisdi—the provinces that border Creeperopolis—would participate in the referendum. Ultimately, four of Arapaho's six districts, four of Eastern Sequoyah's fourteen districts, and two of Itse Ulagohisdi's four districts were chosen as being eligible to participate. The remaining districts in the provinces were unaffected by the referendum. The decision for these specific districts was controversial, as it included Monowi, the capital city of Itse Ulagohisdi, Asdanya, the capital city of Arapaho, and San Juan Diego, Sequoyah's third largest city.

The ballot used in the referendum.

Residents of the districts were required to vote at designated polling stations operated by the Sequoyan Electoral Commission (SDA) in their district's capital city. Once the votes were tallied, the districts which voted in a majority to join Creeperopolis would be annexed, while those which voted in a majority to remain with Sequoyah would have not been annexed. Nicolás Correa Encarnación, the Creeperian minister of external affairs, stated, "If a district votes 50.01 percent against annexation, it will not be annexed; however, if a district votes 50.01 percent for annexation, it will be annexed".

Each referendum ballot contained one question—"Do you approve of annexation to the Holy Traditionalist Empire of Creeperopolis?"—which was written in both Sequoyan and Creeperian.[note 1] Below the question, the ballot had two options: "Yes" (for) and "No" (against). Voters had to select one of the options for their vote to be officially counted; blank ballots, ballots where both options were selected, or ballots which had any writing other than an official vote were discarded and did not contribute to the final percentage, however, some have accussed the Sequoyan Electoral Commission of counting some invalid votes as votes in favor of annexation to appease the Creeperian government.

Party positions

Politically, the majority of Sequoyah's political parties and political leaders supported the referendum occurring, but differed on how the voters should vote. All of the legislature's opposition parties, consisting of left-leaning parties, urged voters to vote against annexation.[note 2] Meanwhile, the legislature's coalition parties, consisting of right-leaning parties, were divided on the issue: the Federalist Party urged voters to vote against annexation, the Creeperian League (LICRE) urged voters to vote for annexation, and the National Reconstruction Party (GAU) officially was neutral on the issue.

Choice Parties Political orientation Leader
Green tickY For Creeperian League Romerism Ernesto Castro Aldana
Red XN Against Creeperian Progress Party Progressivism Matías Hidalgo Pérez
Democratic Party Democratic socialism Diwali Yansa
Federalist Party Classical liberalism Atsadi Onacona
Liberal Democrats for Progress and Change Neo-fascism Mati Jistu
National Accountability Party Liberalism Salali Tsiya
Republican Party Social democracy Wohehiv Avonaco
Sequoyan Independence Party Liberalism Kanati Junaluska
Socialist Party Socialism Aditsan Ahiga
Neutral National Reconstruction Party Conservatism Atohi Dustu

Outside of Sequoyah, the Creeperian Initiative (IC), the sole-legal political party in Creeperopolis, urged every Creeperian within Sequoyah to vote in favor of annexation. The party's leader, José Sáenz Morales, stated, "for 500 years, you have lived away from your home, and for centuries, you have yearned for your anticipated reunification with Creeperopolis", calling for Creeperans within Sequoyah to vote for annexation, which he described as "reunification" with Creeperopolis.[8]

Opinion polling

The tables below list opinion polling results divided by province in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading option's color. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the options in a poll. Unlike most polls conducted during Sequoyan elections, "Undecided" was not accepted as a valid option as per a governmental decree.

Most of the polling conducted occurred in Eastern Sequoyah, as the referendum there was expected to be close and contested. Most of the polls conducted since July 2022 resulted in a marginal difference of less than 10 percentage points. Polling was much less intensive in both Arapaho and Itse Ulagohisdi, in part due to the difficulty of performing efficient polling in the two provinces, but also because the overwhelming majority of polls found that over 90 percent were against annexation and the polling firms felt it was unnecessary to conduct frequent polls as was occurring in Eastern Sequoyah.

The method of polling was criticized as "uninformative" and "improper", as polling did not focus on public opinion on a district level, but instead on a provincial level. Although this did not greatly affect overall polling Arapaho's and Itse Ulagohisdi's districts, it did skew the perception of public opinion in favor of annexation across Eastern Sequoyah. The districts of Navidad and San Juan Diego are generally in favor of annexation, while the districts of Itse Detlugu and Itse Galvquodo are generally opposed to annexation. The average of the four districts combined showed a slight advantage in favor of annexation.

After the referendums, the polling firms in Arapaho and Itse Ulagohisdi were severely criticized regarding the accuracy of their polling. For nearly the entire period in which polling was conducted from early-June to late-October, almost every poll indicated that a margin of 90 points or more would vote against annexation, however, the final results indicated that annexation was defeated by only 69.32 points in Arapaho, and that it was defeated by only 37.06 points in Itse Ulagohisdi. The results in Anuwosidigadu were exceptionally closer, as up to 45.65 percent voted in favor of annexation.

Arapaho

Opinion polling for the 2022 northern Sequoyan annexation referendums (Arapaho province)
Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample
size
For Against Lead
Arapaho referendum[9] 31 October 2022 15.34 84.66 –69.32
Asdanya Daily 29–30 October 2022 2,6789 2.8 97.2 –94.4
Asdanya Daily 29 October 2022 1,558 2.4 97.6 –95.2
Asequi Expositor 28 October 2022 1,500 2.3 97.7 –95.4
Asdanya Daily 24 October 2022 1,257 2.5 97.5 –95.0
Navaja Briefing 20 October 2022 1,448 2.6 97.4 –94.8
Arapaho Times 12 October 2022 1,582 4.5 95.5 –91.0
Asdanya Daily 1–5 October 2022 1,793 3.3 96.7 –93.4
Navaja Briefing 30 September 2022 1,638 2.1 97.9 –95.8
Asequi Express 15 September 2022 1,638 5.2 94.8 –89.4
Asdanya Daily 1 September 2022 1,258 5.2 94.8 –89.4
Navaja Briefing 20–26 August 2022 4,295 2.0 98.0 –96.0
Arapaho Times 15 August 2022 1,258 4.5 95.5 –91.0
Arapaho Monthly 1–2 August 2022 1,638 3.6 96.4 –92.8
Asdanya Daily 1 August 2022 1,032 6.8 93.2 –86.4
Navaja Briefing 25–31 July 2022 3,552 1.4 98.6 –97.2
Arapaho Times 20 July 2022 1,385 4.7 95.3 –90.6
Navaja Briefing 11 July 2022 1,539 1.8 98.2 –96.4
Asdanya Daily 5 July 2022 1,219 6.5 93.5 –87.0
Arapaho Monthly 20–30 June 2022 1,529 3.7 96.3 –92.6
Arapaho Times 22 June 2022 1,258 6.3 93.7 –87.4
Asdanya Daily 15 June 2022 1,529 5.3 94.7 –89.4
Navaja Briefing 1–10 June 2022 4,638 2.1 97.9 –95.8
Asdanya Daily 5 June 2022 1,529 7.6 92.4 –84.8
Arapaho Times 1–4 June 2022 1,638 8.2 91.8 –83.6

Eastern Sequoyah

Opinion polling for the 2022 northern Sequoyan annexation referendums (Eastern Sequoyah province)
Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample
size
For Against Lead
Eastern Sequoyah referendum[10] 31 October 2022 55.99 44.01 +11.98
Tiempos de San Juan Diego 29–30 October 2022 3,638 53.9 46.1 +7.8
Eastern Sequoyah Gazette 29 October 2022 1,538 52.2 47.8 +4.4
Asequi Expositor 28 October 2022 2,500 52.5 47.5 +5.0
San Juan Diego Tribune 26 October 2022 1,392 52.0 48.0 +4.0
Tiempos de San Juan Diego 24 October 2022 1,583 52.6 47.4 +5.2
San Juan Diego Tribune 23 October 2022 1,428 52.3 47.7 +5.6
Eastern Sequoyah Gazette 22 October 2022 1,229 52.5 47.5 +5.0
Tiempos de San Juan Diego 20 October 2022 1,853 51.9 48.1 +3.8
Asequi Expositor 17–18 October 2022 1,755 51.7 48.3 +3.4
San Juan Diego Tribune 14 October 2022 1,638 54.7 45.3 +9.4
San Juan Diego Tribune 10 October 2022 1,458 54.6 45.4 +9.2
Eastern Sequoyah Gazette 5 October 2022 1,429 54.1 45.9 +8.2
Eastern Sequoyah Gazette 3 October 2022 1,248 54.2 45.8 +8.4
Tiempos de San Juan Diego 1 October 2022 1,569 54.0 46.0 +8.0
El Pueblo Creeperiano 27 September 2022 1,448 53.7 46.3 +7.4
Asequi Expositor 22 September 2022 1,448 52.3 47.7 +4.6
San Juan Diego Tribune 20 September 2022 1,358 52.6 47.4 +5.2
El Pueblo Creeperiano 15 September 2022 1,429 54.3 45.7 +8.6
Tiempos de San Juan Diego 13 September 2022 2,191 52.1 47.9 +4.2
Eastern Sequoyah Gazette 8 September 2022 3,558 51.0 49.0 +2.0
Eastern Sequoyah Gazette 1–3 September 2022 3,421 51.1 48.9 +2.2
San Juan Diego Tribune 1 September 2022 1,853 49.0 51.0 –2.0
Tiempos de San Juan Diego 25 August 2022 1,429 51.4 48.6 +2.8
Tiempos de San Juan Diego 22 August 2022 1,428 50.4 49.6 +0.8
El Pueblo Creeperiano 20 August 2022 1,528 52.4 47.6 +4.8
Eastern Sequoyah Gazette 18 August 2022 1,329 52.8 47.2 +5.6
El Pueblo Creeperiano 15 August 2022 1,558 53.8 46.2 +7.6
Tiempos de San Juan Diego 10 August 2022 1,248 53.5 46.5 +7.0
Radio Itse Gadu 8 August 2022 1,357 53.6 46.4 +7.2
San Juan Diego Tribune 4 August 2022 1,049 51.5 48.5 +3.0
Tiempos de San Juan Diego 1 August 2022 1,538 51.2 48.8 +2.4
Asequi Expositor 31 July 2022 2,568 50.6 49.4 +1.2
Eastern Sequoyah Gazette 26 July 2022 1,220 49.0 51.0 –2.0
Asequi Expositor 23–24 July 2022 2,568 48.4 51.6 –3.2
El Pueblo Creeperiano 22 July 2022 1,538 51.6 48.4 +2.8
Tiempos de San Juan Diego 20 July 2022 1,218 51.2 48.8 +2.4
Eastern Sequoyah Gazette 17 July 2022 1,700 48.5 51.5 –3.0
Tiempos de San Juan Diego 13 July 2022 1,468 50.5 49.5 +1.0
San Juan Diego Tribune 11 July 2022 1,430 47.2 52.8 –5.6
El Pueblo Creeperiano 10–11 July 2022 2,310 55.3 44.7 +10.6
Tiempos de San Juan Diego 9 July 2022 1,810 51.0 49.0 +2.0
Eastern Sequoyah Gazette 7 July 2022 1,202 48.2 51.8 –3.6
El Pueblo Creeperiano 5 July 2022 1,285 50.5 49.5 +1.0
Tiempos de San Juan Diego 2 July 2022 1,623 50.8 49.2 +1.6
San Juan Diego Tribune 1 July 2022 1,538 50.5 49.5 +1.0
San Juan Diego Tribune 29 June 2022 1,320 50.4 49.6 +0.8
Eastern Sequoyah Gazette 27 June 2022 1,452 49.2 50.8 –1.6
Tiempos de San Juan Diego 24 June 2022 1,539 50.1 49.9 +0.2
San Juan Diego Tribune 20 June 2022 1,149 49.3 50.7 –1.4
El Pueblo Creeperiano 18 June 2022 2,539 52.7 47.3 +5.4
Tiempos de San Juan Diego 13 June 2022 1,429 46.4 53.6 –7.2
Asequi Expositor 10 June 2022 1,044 43.6 56.4 –12.8
El Pueblo Creeperiano 7 June 2022 1,649 40.4 59.6 –19.2
Tiempos de San Juan Diego 6 June 2022 1,538 42.5 57.5 –15.0
Tiempos de San Juan Diego 1–4 June 2022 1,764 47.1 52.9 –5.8

Itse Ulagohisdi

Opinion polling for the 2022 northern Sequoyan annexation referendums (Itse Ulagohisdi province)
Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample
size
For Against Lead
Itse Ulagohisdi referendum[11] 31 October 2022 31.47 68.53 –37.06
Monowi Gazette 29–30 October 2022 2,639 3.4 96.6 –93.2
Itse Ulagohisdi Magazine 29 October 2022 1,285 3.0 97.0 –94.0
Asequi Expositor 28 October 2022 1,500 3.5 96.5 –93.0
Monowi Gazette 21 October 2022 1,279 3.9 96.1 –92.2
Monowi Gazette 15 October 2022 1,429 4.0 96.0 –92.0
Itse Ulagohisdi Magazine 1–10 October 2022 3,568 3.7 96.3 –92.6
Monowi Gazette 30 September 2022 1,428 4.0 96.0 –92.0
Monowi Gazette 15 September 2022 1,294 6.5 93.5 –87.0
Monowi Gazette 20–30 August 2022 3,552 3.9 96.1 –92.2
Itse Ulagohisdi Magazine 7–12 August 2022 2,4329 5.3 94.7 –89.4
Monowi Gazette 25–31 July 2022 2,568 4.0 96.0 –92.0
Monowi Gazette 25–30 June 2022 2,578 5.0 95.0 –90.0
Itse Ulagohisdi Magazine 15 June 2022 1,560 4.8 95.2 –90.4
Monowi Gazette 1–4 June 2022 1,786 8.0 92.0 –84.0

Results

Arapaho districts

District Yes No Valid votes Invalid votes Total votes Turnout Electorate Source
Votes % Votes %
Asdanya 5,344 14.26 32,132 85.74 37,476 1,432 38,908 52.34 74,344 SDA
Atsinagadu 542 8.71 5,679 91.29 6,221 3,433 9,654 41.91 23,034 SDA
Ganolesgi Wigosday 3,421 19.38 14,232 80.62 17,653 567 18,220 42.35 43,021 SDA
Udanelev 4,307 11.18 34,215 88.82 38,522 2,344 40,866 74.77 54,657 SDA
Arapaho 16,493 15.34 91,014 84.66 107,507 7,802 115,309 59.12 195,056 SDA