2024 Gjorkan Ostlandet Union membership referendum

Gjorkan Ostlandet Union membership referendum

3 November 2024 (2024-11-03)
Do you wish for Gjorka to remain a member of the Ostlandet Union
Location	Gjorka
Outcome	Gjorka votes to remain in the Ostlandet Union
Results
Results Votes % Yes 14,664,249 53.06% No 12,973,286 46.94% Valid votes 27,637,535 99.70% Invalid or blank votes 83,163 0.30% Total votes 27,720,698 100.00% Registered voters/turnout 51,621,413 53.7%
Results by district

The Gjorkan Ostlandet Union membership referendum, commonly referred to as the OU referendum, is a planned referendum in Gjorka scheduled to take place on November 3, 2024 to ask the electorate whether the country should remain a member of the Ostlandet Union (OU) or leave.

Gjorka is one of the founding members of the OU, with the country even hosting the 2022 Gjorka City summit which led to the foundation of the Union. However, the issue of Gjorka's membership in the Union has been a topic of debate since its founding. Immediately following the Gjorka City Declaration, the National Social Party (PSN), Gjorka's fourth largest party, announced it's withdrawal from the right-wing National Coalition over Gjorka United's support of the OU. The OU initially received a popularity boost after the Union militarily intervened in Ajakanistan in response to the Castlederg missile strike, but this support wavered as the OU's progress stalled and Gjorkan casualties increased. Once the war finished, debate arose about wether Gjorka was responsible for rebuilding the country and participating the OU occupation of Ajakanistan. Th OU's popularity took its biggest following the military intervention in Akvatika. In a poll by the Gjorka Times, only 36% supported supported Gjorka's involvement with another 47% actively opposing any involvement.

Following the loss of it's majority in several district senates in the 2023 district senate elections, Gjorka United was forced to enter into negotiations with PSN to rejoin the National Coalition to secure a majority. As part of the agreement between the two parties, President Carter Morris announced she was calling for a referendum to be held on Gjorka's membership in the OU, with the referendum swiftly being approved in by the National Assembly; albeit by a slim majority. The referendum is legally non-binding, though Morris has pledged to acknowledge the results of the referendum.

Since the announcement of the referendum, nearly all Gjorkan parties have announced their stance on the referendum. Parties in favour of Stay include Gjorka United, the Green Party, and the Gjorkan Pirate Party; while the National Social Party (PSN) and Éirígí support Leave; and Forward Gjorka and the Freedom Party choosing to remain neutral. In spite of the official positions of Gjorka United and Forward Gjorka, factions within each party have campaigned separately with the Wolf Caucus and Forward with Socialism both supporting Leave. Many political scholars have argued the referendum is less about Gjorka leaving the OU and more a vote of approval on Morris's presidency, with the creation of the OU being a major policy point of her administration.

Background

Creation of the OU

During the the 2021 Gjorkan presidential election, Gjorka United nominee Carter Morris made Gjorka's international presence a key issue during his campaign. Morris contrasted herself with President Roman Vanderburg's neutrality policy by proposing Gjorka take a much more active role in international affairs, specifically within Ostlandet. Morris briefly floated the idea of negotiating a continental dialogue forum several times during her campaign but nothing of the sort was a part of Gjorka United's official party manifesto.

Following her election victory, Morris's administration had a strong early focus on repairing Gjorka's relationship with continental neighbors, with President Morris making several trips to nearby countries. The meetings eventually coalesced into a summit hosted in Gjorka City in 2022 between the leaders of several Ostlandet countries. The goal of the summit was to create a forum for dialogue between Ostlandet countries in hopes to resolve the escalating tension in the region. The summit resulted in the Gjorka City Declaration which created the Ostlandet Union (OU), a intergovernmental organization designed to facilitate cooperation within the continent.

The initial reaction to the declaration was positive in Gjorka with Morris seeing a jump in approval rating following the summit. In a poll by the Gjorka Times, 53% of respondents approved of the OU. However, the declaration was met with significant backlash from the far-right of Gjorka, particularly from the National Social Party (PSN), a right-wing populist party that was apart of the National Coalition with Gjorka United. In response to the declaration, PSN pulled out of the coalition with PSN leader Andrew Tabor declaring it a "ponzy scheme for the globalists to uproot Gjorkan values".. OUscepticism and withdrawal from the OU became core policies advocated for by the party in the elections that followed.

OU interventions

Main articles: OU military intervention in Ajakanistan and OU military intervention in Shaoyu

The de-escalation in tensions from the founding of the OU proved to be short-lived as tensions with Ajakanistan arose again following the Battle of the Romanyan Sea, a confrontation between the Ajaki and Pavulturilori navies. Ajakanistan faced international condemnation for their role in the battle, including from the OU. At the Council of Ostlandet meeting to vote on the condemnation of Ajakanistan, Ajaki Supreme Leader Vladimir Kareiv (who was in attendance) was arrested by Paleocacherian authorities carrying out an arrest warrant from the Terraconservan International Court. The arrest led to a significant escalation in tensions between the OU and Ajakanistan, with Morris authorizing the deployment of nearly 150,000 troops to the border with Ajakanistan along with mobilizations from other OU militaries. Relations between the Ajaki government and the OU broke down after the OU voted to the recognize the democratic opposition-in exile Free Council of Ajakanistan as the legitimate government of Ajakanistan. On 30 November 2022, the Ajaki military ordered a missile strike on the Gjorkan border town of Castlederg where a meeting between the OU and communist Ajaki government was scheduled to be held, prompting an immediate response of invasion from the mobilized OU forces.

An anti-war protest in Éire in September of 2023. Signs reads "No OU, No War".

The OU intervention in Ajakanistan was initially widely supported in Gjorka, with many Gjorkans viewing it as a defensive war against Ajakanistan. Support for the OU marked its highest ever polling during this time with nearly 70% of Gjorkans having a favorable view of the organization in a Gjorka Times poll. This period of high support for the war faded as Gjorkan progress slowed. The anti-war movement within the country began to emerge as casualties increased. These protests were primarily student driven and supported by the Gjorkan Pirate Party and Éirígí. The two parties frequently collaborated and organized large protests across the country. The largest came in February when an additional 50,000 reservists were called up and Major General Ted Donohoe resigned. In response, a 30,000 student protestors organized in Gjorka City. Support for the war continued to dwindle as Gjorkan forces continued to advance slowly. Ultimately the Ajaki government surrendered on March 12, 2023, bringing the war to a close. Gjorka was part of the post-war occupation of Ajakanistan. Gjorka's role as part of the occupying force was unpopular at home, with a plurality of Gjorkans believing Gjorka should not spend resources to rebuild the country in a Gjorka Times poll. Protests continued as many demanded an ended to the occupation, with the Gjorkan right now joining the protest movements.

In August of 2023, the OU published a report exposing the Akvatika Island genocide occurring on the Zloveshchiyan island of Akvatika. The report detailed an intentional system set up by the Zloveshchiyan government to replace native islanders and Monsilvans with Zloveshchiyan immigrants. The genocide was condemned by the OU and by Gjorka, with President Morris switching recognition of ownership of the island from Zloveshchiy to Monsilva and recognizing the Monsilvan name of Shaoyu. On the same day, Morris mobilized the armed forces to the border with Zloveshchiy and placed Northern Gjorka and Roscommon on high alert. On August 31, OU forces (including Gjorka) began bombing the island, beginning the OU intervention in the island. While a majority of Gjorkans opposed the genocide, a majority also opposed Gjorkan involvement in the intervention. The response to the Gjorkan participation was much harsher with the anti-occupation movement morphing into an anti-war movement. A 70,000 person anti-war protest in Gjorka City was organized on September 24 in response to Operation Javelin, a strike by the Gjorkan Aerial Forces on mainland southern Zloveshchiy. The popularity of the OU fell drastically as a result of the Akvatika intervention with only 51% on Gjorkans supporting the organization by the end of September according to the Gjorka Times. On September 30, the last Zloveshchiyan forces on the island surrendered bringing the intervention to a close. Gjorka also participated in the OU occupation of now Shaoyu, but to a much more limited extent.

2023 District Assembly elections

Main article: 2023 Gjorkan district senate elections

Polling for the 2023 District Assembly elections predicted a defeat for Gjorka United and a surge in support for Forward Gjorka. Morris's approval rating had remained in the negative for a large share of her presidency and the recent anti-war protests had only compounded issues for the party. Ultimately, United over performed their polling numbers significantly, managing to even gain seats in a few districts and have a next gain in plurality in district senates. However, the party still lost seats overall and only had pluralities in most district senates, not majorities. The election resulted in gains for Gjorka's third parties, particularly the National Social Party (PSN) who gained nineteen seat overall. Thus PSN became a kingmaker for United to retain control over several of the senates, necessitating a re-entry into the National Coalition for PSN.

Negotiations between the two sides were extremely tense. PSN walked out on the first two meetings between the two sides as they were unable to find compromises. Reportedly, PSN demanded a complete withdrawal from the OU, a ban on all Khoroshiyan parties, increases to police and military funding, and reportedly demanded Olivia O'Kane resign as Secretary of Global Relations and be replaced by a PSN member among other demands. Eventually PSN dropped all other demands and narrowed in on the demand to leave the OU. The two sides still remained far apart as Morris initially said that "no decision will be made on the OU until the 2026 election". After two months of negotiations, United relented and the two sides agreed on a non-binding referendum on the OU. On March 3, 2024 in a televised address to the nation, Morris announced she was submitting a bill to the National Assembly to schedule a referendum on the country's OU membership. The bill passed narrowly the socialist wing of Forward Gjorka breaking at the last minute to support the bill.

Administration

Date

The date of the referendum was a key point of contention during negotiations between the National Social Party (PSN) and Gjorka United. PSN preferred an early date, proposing sometime in early august, while United wanted a later date around December. Eventually, Morris and United relented, initially proposing a date of Saturday August 3 in Morris's referendum bill submitted to the National Assembly. This date received further backlash from Forward with Socialism (the socialist wing of Forward Gjorka). After defections from centrist members of Forward who initially supported the bill, support from Forward with Socialism was necessary to secure enough votes for the bill. Despite pushback from PSN, the date was changed to Sunday November 3.

Eligibility to vote

According to the Constitution of Gjorka, all citizens over the age of 18 are entitled to a vote in any national or local elections/referendums. Under Gjorkan law, prisoners with sentences above 20 years are disenfranchised and thus ineligible to vote in the election. The estimated electorate of 49,991,103 represents approximately 71% of the Gjorkan population.

Gjorkan citizens living abroad are eligible to vote in the referendum, with the vast majority voting by mail. The Gjorkan government traditionally operates a handful of polling stations abroad in areas with high amounts of Gjorkan expatriates, such as Paleocacher.

The deadline to register to vote for the referendum and receive a full ballot is October 20. Registration for a provisional ballot is open until Election Day, but provisional ballots will only be counted in the case of a recount. Requests for an absentee ballot to be sent by mail have a deadline of October 27, and any mail postmarked for November 3 will be counted in the final result tab. Poll stations will be opened around mainland Gjorka from 0700 to 2200 (GST) and in Dontalamh from 0700 to 2200 (DST)

Cost

The National Electoral Commission estimates the referendum to cost around $500 million in total by Election Day. The Commission was granted a budget of $450 million by the National Assembly, with an additional $20 million granted specifically to the Commission's branch in Dontalamh. $50 million of the federal emergency budget has been set aside for the Commission for the referendum if necessary.

Campaign

On March 10 a week after Morris's announcement, Prosperity with Ostlandet, a Gjorka United funded group campaigning for Gjorka to remain in the OU, was founded. Prosperity with Ostlandet became the largest advocacy group for the remain campaign, joined by other groups such as the Pink-Green for the OU (focused primarily on left-wing voters). The leave campaign was split between two groups: Stronger as Gjorka and Vote Leave, focused on right-wing and left-wing voters respectively. There was a significant struggle between both groups to be designated as the primary group for the leave campaign. Ultimately in June of 2024, the National Electoral Commission designated both Stronger as Gjorka and Vote Leave as co-primary campaigns of the leave campaign, and Prosperity with Ostlandet as the primary remain campaign. This designation gave the three campaigns designated TV time and ₱16 million pón for each side (split evenly between the two leave campaigns). This decision led to accusations of bias against the National Electoral Commission by members of the leave side, accusing them of intentionally splitting leave's spending pot. The referendum law mandated the Gjorkan government take an official neutral position within the campaign, but allowed individuals members of government to express their opinions.

After the National Electoral Commission's decision to designate Stronger as Gjorka and Vote Leave as co-primary campaigns, the two sides met in Gjorka City on July 1 and announced an alliance between the two leave campaigns. Forward with Socialism leader Andrew Nester, a prominent figure in the Vote Leave campaign, criticized the meeting, stating that "though we agree with (the right) on this issue, we are not allies". In response, Prosperity with Ostlandet publicly announced it was donating ₱1.6 million pón to Pink-Green for the OU, re-affirming the two group's alliance. Despite the public alliance between the two leave campaigns, the two groups seldom held joint public rallies and continued to remain fairly separate.

Big 6 scandal

Main article: Big 6 Scandal

Responses to the referendum campaign

Party policies

National Assembly

Position	Political parties
Stay		Gjorka United (Moderates and Conservatives)
		Green Party
		Gjorkan Pirate Party
Leave		National Social Party
		Gjorka United (Populists)
		Forward Gjorka (Socialists)
Neutral		Forward Gjorka (Moderates and Liberals)
		Freedom Party

District Senates

Position	Political parties
Stay		Pro-Gjorkan Initiative
Leave		Workers Liberation Front
		Blue Dawn
		Éirígí
Neutral		Khoroshiyan Civic Initiative
		Dundalk Voters Alliance

Dontalamh

Position	Political parties
Stay		Dontalamh People's Party
Leave		Akaroa Now
Neutral		New Akaroan Alliance
		Union

Opinion polling

Date(s) conducted	Remain	Leave	Undecided	Lead	Sample	Conducted by
3 November	53.0%	46.9%	N/A	6.1%	27,720,698	National Electoral Commission
3 November	49%	50%	N/A	1%	1,506	Gjorka Times
2 November	49%	51%	N/A	2%	4,007	McCormick Polling-WatchDog
1 November	51%	49%	N/A	1%	2,101	All-Gjorka Research
30 October	48%	48%	4%	0%	1,405	Gjorka Times
26 October	50%	50%	N/A	0%	3,766	McCormick Polling-WatchDog
23 October	44%	46%	10%	2%	1,353	Gjorka Times
19 October	49%	51%	N/A	2%	4,005	McCormick Polling-WatchDog
16 October	44%	43%	13%	1%	1,607	Gjorka Times
12 October	49%	51%	N/A	2%	3,988	McCormick Polling-WatchDog
9 October	43%	41%	16%	2%	1,456	Gjorka Times
5 October	50%	50%	N/A	0%	4,041	McCormick Polling-WatchDog
1 October	44%	45%	11%	1%	2,052	All-Gjorka Research
28 September	51%	49%	N/A	2%	3,879	McCormick Polling-WatchDog
25 September	44%	41%	15%	3%	1,708	Gjorka Times
14 September	52%	48%	N/A	4%	4,102	McCormick Polling-WatchDog
11 September	46%	40%	14%	6%	1,489	Gjorka Times
4 September	51%	37%	12%	14%	1,205	Gjorka Times
2 September	Big 6 Scandal report published by the Baltimore Sun
1 September	49%	40%	11%	9%	2,000	All-Gjorka Research
31 August	56%	44%	N/A	12%	3,501	McCormick Polling-WatchDog
28 August	53%	36%	11%	17%	1,004	Gjorka Times
14 August	51%	37%	12%	14%	1,109	Gjorka Times
10 August	54%	46%	N/A	8%	3,409	McCormick Polling-WatchDog
1 August	47%	36%	17%	11%	2,011	All-Gjorka Research
31 July	52%	37%	11%	15%	1,021	Gjorka Times
17 July	51%	34%	15%	17%	1,301	Gjorka Times
6 July	54%	46%	N/A	8%	3,544	McCormick Polling-WatchDog
3 July	51%	32%	17%	19%	1,221	Gjorka Times
1 July	45%	35%	20%	10%	2,103	All-Gjorka Research
15 June	53%	46%	N/A	7%	3,544	McCormick Polling-WatchDog
20 May	49%	33%	18%	16%	1,638	Gjorka Times
6 May	50%	35%	16%	15%	1,144	Gjorka Times
1 May	45%	32%	23%	13%	1,780	All-Gjorka Research
22 April	47%	34%	19%	13%	1,585	Gjorka Times
8 April	44%	31%	25%	13%	1,534	Gjorka Times
25 March	42%	35%	23%	7%	1,204	Gjorka Times
11 March	43%	31%	26%	12%	1,623	Gjorka Times

See also

• 1991 Gjorkan Constitution referendum