2023 Monsilvan federal election

2023 Monsilvan federal election

18 June 2023 and 24 February 2024
All 600 seats in the Legislative Assembly 301 seats are needed for a majority All 85 seats in the Senate 43 seats are needed for a majority
Registered	42,591,489
Turnout	40,168,657 (94.31%)
First party Second party Third party   Leader Lin Yao-tang Bao Hsueh Gao Jingyi Party Democratic Coalition Nationalist Coalition Liberal Coalition Leader since 30 May 2019 (2019-05-30) 10 May 2023 (2023-05-10) 4 February 2018 (2018-02-04) Leader's seat Waiping West Xiaogu Amking State North Last election 185 seats, 42.9% 186 seats, 39.63% 56 seats, 12.73% Seats won 302 164 96 Seat change 117 22 40 Popular vote 18,086,523 10,620,144 6,058,430 Percentage 45.0% 24.9% 13.0%
Results by winning party by division for the Legislative Assembly.
Composition of the Legislative Assembly after the election
Prime Minister before election Xu Yan Reformed National Party Prime Minister after election Lin Yao-tang Freedom and Democracy Party

The 2023 Monsilvan federal election was held on Sunday, 18 June 2023 to elect members of the 43rd Parliament of Monsilva. The Democratic Coalition, led by Lin Yao-tang, who had been the opposition, defeated the governing Nationalist Coalition, led by Bao Hsueh by a margin of 134 seats or 20.1% of votes, but with a parliamentary majority of only 2 seats. The election had been called by prime minister Xu Yan due to his promise to do so should he fail to prevent the passing of the Electoral Reform Act, which he did.

The election saw the return of the Freedom and Democracy Party as the governing party, a position it had in 2016 before it lost to the Nationalist Coalition at the 2016 federal election. With the introduction of the party-list proportional representation system for this election, which came from the Electoral Reform Act passed earlier in the year, the FDP won only 25.4% of the popular vote, the lowest the party has ever recieved, and the lowest of any governing party in a Monsilvan federal election. However, it also saw an increase in the vote share for smaller parties, such as the Alternative for Monsilva, which rose from only 5 seats and 2.23% of the vote to 15 seats and 4.03% of the vote. The Liberal Party saw its highest ever seats and vote share, winning 84 seats and 13.0% of the popular vote. It was also the highest proportion of total seats the party had ever won.

After the election, the OU military intervention in Akvatika took place, which eventually resulted in Shaoyu being admitted as Monsilva's fifteenth state. To make sure the new state was represented in parliament, an election was called for the 24 February 2024. As these seats would take part in the 43rd Parliament, it was not considered a new election, and simply a second part to the 2023 election. In Shaoyu, the Democratic Coalition saw the most success with the Shaoyu Liberation Party winning 37 of the state's total 84 seats, the Conservative Party of Shaoyu of the Nationalist Coalition, and the Progressive Party of Shaoyu of the Liberal Coalition came in second with 12 seats each. The Shaoyu Independence Party won 10 seats. This was the first election the party took part in since 1969.

Background

Political background of the Reformed National Party before the election

At the 2020 federal election, Xu Yan and the Reformed National Party lost 38 seats, resulting in the Nationalist Coalition losing its parliamentary majority of 4 seats. As his party was still the largest in parliament, he maintained a minority government. This minority government brought many problems for Xu, as he struggled to introduce legislation that would be accepted by either the opposition (Democratic Coalition) or the Liberal Party, which had enough seats to stop the Democratic Coalition from preventing legislation from passing.

The party's performance during the 2021 and 2022 state elections was poor, and their polling was declining rapidly as the Liberal Party and the Democratic Coalition began passing legislation opposed by the government, resulting in many politicians calling for an early election. During the campaign for the 2023 state elections, Xu announced he would resign if the opposition was able to pass an electoral reform act that was not drafted by his party. In May 2023, the Electoral Reform Act 2023 was passed by the Democratic Coalition and the Liberal Party, and Xu formally resigned as leader of the Reformed National Party, being succeeded by Bao Hsueh. This resulted in the calling of the 2023 federal election.

Political background of other parties before the election

After failing to win the majority of seats at the 2020 federal election, Lin Yao-tang decided he would continue to lead the Freedom and Democracy Party and the Democratic Coalition throughout Xu Yan's second term in an attempt to have better success in this election. Under Lin, the FDP's political alignment was stretched out, attempting to satisfy the growing Social Democratic Party, a fellow member of the Democratic Coalition, and the Liberal Party, who they collaborated with frequently to weaken Xu's minority government. Both parties made significant gains during the 2021, 2022 and 2023 state elections.

At the 2020 election, the Liberal Party saw a noticeable increase in vote share and seat numbers, and the leadership of Gao Jingyi was popular amongst voters. Gao has led the Liberal Party since 2018, and has maintained leadership since, with party members voting overwhelmingly for her continued leadership in 2021. In March 2023, Gao introduced the Electoral Reform Act which resulted in the resignation of Xu Yan and the calling of the 2023 election.

Yuen Lim was re-elected as the leader of the Green Party after the 2020 federal election.

Electoral system

The 600 members of the Legislative Assembly are elected by party-list proportional representation from 84 constituencies. Seats are allocated using the Chun-Mei system with no threshold. This is the first federal election being held with this system, having been adopted after the passing of the Electoral Reform Act earlier in the year.

Seats in the Senate are also elected through party-list proportional representation, with each state constituting a constituency. There are 15 states which elect a varying number of senators.

Apportionment of parliamentary seats by state in 2023

State	Population	Senators	MPs	Pop. per MP
Amking	11,535,841	17	118	97,761
Bazhong	2,307,169	3	24	96,132
Donguan	3,355,008	6	35	95,857
Huachang	1,947,635	3	21	92,745
Leibo	1,353,539	2	14	96,681
Luhai	6,094,770	9	64	95,231
Maguan	4,143,290	6	43	96,356
Meixian	5,594,884	8	58	96,464
Nanyan	1,559,261	2	16	97,454
Shaoyu	8,000,000	10	84	95,238
Weishi	1,909,182	3	19	100,483
Wuzhong	3,691,470	6	37	99,769
Xiaogu	3,653,017	6	38	96,132
Xishanjia	1,540,612	2	16	96,288
Zaixian	1,326,622	2	13	102,048

Campaign

TBD

Television debates

Three televised debates between the leaders of the Nationalist and Democratic coalitions, Bao Hsueh and Lin Yao-tang respectively, were scheduled and agreed to by both leaders. The first debate was held on LGTV on 20 May, the second on XingTV on 27 May, and the last on SSG on 10 June. Gao Jingyi was invited to two further debates with just Bao and Lin, both held on SSG on 24 May and the 4 June. Larger debates with more party leaders were scheduled on the 1 June on LGTV and 7 June on SSG. Two debates with just the leaders of the coalition parties (excluding the FDP and RNP) was held on XingTV on 21 May and another on SSG on 28 May. A minor debate between leaders of the non-coalition leaders was held on the 9 June. Further debates between local state leaders for the different parties were held on local networks and are not listed.

2023 Monsilvan federal election debates

Date	Broadcaster	Moderator	P  Present  I  Invited  S  Surrogate  NI  Not invited  A  Absent  N  No debate
			RNP	FDP	Liberal	Green	Soc. Dem.	AfM	Communist	Innovate	PNP
20 May	LGTV	Wang Long-feng	P Bao	P Lin	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI
21 May	XingXing	Li Yi-mei	NI	NI	NI	P Yuen	P Zi	NI	NI	P Xia	P Tain
24 May	SSG	Wu Zhi	P Bao	P Lin	P Gao	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI
27 May	XingXing	Li Yi-mei	P Bao	P Lin	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI
28 May	SSG	Zheng Xiu-ying	NI	NI	NI	P Yuen	P Zi	NI	NI	P Xia	P Tain
1 June	LGTV	Chiu Yu	P Bao	P Lin	P Gao	P Yuen	P Zi	P Luo	P Ng	P Xia	P Tain
4 June	SSG	Jian Ling	P Bao	P Lin	P Gao	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI
7 June	SSG	Zheng Xiu-ying	P Bao	P Lin	P Gao	P Yuen	P Zi	P Luo	P Ng	P Xia	P Tain
9 June	XingXing	Lai Hao-yu	NI	NI	NI	P Yuen	P Zi	P Luo	P Ng	P Xia	P Tain
10 June	SSG	Wu Zhi	P Bao	P Lin	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI

Candidates

There were 6,054 candidates standing, the most of any federal election in Monsilva's history, with a mean of 71.5 candidates per constituency. The constituencies of Shangrao West, Luhai Central and Amking South East had the most candidates, with 146, 145 and 142 respectively.

All parties standing at least 10 candidates

Parties		Candidates	Constituencies
	Green Party	530	84
	Innovate Monsilva	522	84
	Social Democratic Party	518	84
	Freedom and Democracy Party	516	73
	Reformed National Party	516	73
	Liberal Party	516	73
	Alternative for Monsilva	493	84
	People's New Party	480	84
	Monsilvan Communist Party	306	84
	Revive Monsilva	121	73
	Monsilvan Pirate Party	106	53
	Cheng I	88	14
	Unite Party	84	42
	Shaoyu Liberation Party	84	11
	Conservative Party of Shaoyu	84	11
	Progressive Party of Shaoyu	84	11
	Shaoyu Independence Party	84	11
	Party for Baltanese in Monsilva	27	9
	Save Shaoyu Again	22	11
	Monsilvan Marxist-Petrovist Party	12	6
	Party of the Emperor	10	9
	Independent	704	84

Opinion polls

Various organizations conduct regular opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in the graph below. The polls do not include Shaoyu and display results of the 2023 election before Shaoyu voted in 2024.

The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous federal election, held on 8 August 2020, to 19 June 2023, when results for the 2023 federal election were announced.

Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.

Results

Legislative Assembly

Summary of seats returned

Affiliate		Leader	MPs			Aggregate votes
				Of total			Of total
	Freedom and Democracy Party	Lin Yao-tang	189	31.5%		10,207,743	25.4%
	Reformed National Party	Bao Hsueh	115	19.2%		6,071,720	15.1%
	Liberal Party	Gao Jingyi	84	14.0%		5,232,964	13.0%
	Green Party	Yuen Lim	46	7.7%		3,396,026	8.5%
	Shaoyu Liberation Party	Yaxia Erlin	37	6.2%		1,890,392	4.7%
	Social Democratic Party	Zi Ch'en	30	5.0%		2,592,362	6.5%
	Innovate Monsilva	Xia He Yüan	21	3.5%		1,931,301	4.8%
	People's New Party	Tain T'ien	16	2.7%		2,016,313	5.0%
	Alternative for Monsilva	Luo Jingguo	15	2.5%		1,618,729	4.0%
	Progressive Party of Shaoyu	Zhang Donghai	12	2.0%		825,466	2.1%
	Conservative Party of Shaoyu	Ding Peizhi	12	2.0%		600,810	1.5%
	Shaoyu Independence Party	Hou Qiao	10	1.7%		686,431	1.7%
	Monsilvan Communist Party	Ng Tao	9	1.5%		1,339,009	3.3%
	Cheng I / Justice Party	Bo Niu	4	0.7%		381,139	1.0%

Full results

Results of the 2023 federal election to the Legislative Assembly of Monsilva

Affiliate		Leader	Candidates	MPs					Aggregate votes
				Total	Gained	Lost	Net	Of total (%)	Total	Of total (%)	Change (%)
	Freedom and Democracy Party	Lin Yao-tang	516	189	—	—	17	31.5	10,207,743	25.41	9.5
	Reformed National Party	Bao Hsueh	516	115	—	—	65	19.2	6,071,720	15.12	20.8
	Liberal Party	Gao Jingyi	516	84	—	—	28	14.0	5,232,964	13.03	3.2
	Green Party	Yuen Lim	530	46	—	—	38	7.7	3,396,026	8.45	3.6
	Social Democratic Party	Zi Ch'en	518	30	—	—	25	5.0	2,592,362	6.45	3.4
	People's New Party	Tain T'ien	480	16	—	—	14	2.7	2,016,313	5.02	3.4
	Innovate Monsilva	Xia He Yüan	522	21	—	—	17	3.5	1,931,301	4.81	2.7
	Shaoyu Liberation Party	Yaxia Erlin	84	37	Did not stand in 2020			6.2	1,890,392	4.71	—
	Alternative for Monsilva	Luo Jingguo	493	15	—	—	10	2.5	1,618,729	4.03	1.8
	Monsilvan Communist Party	Ng Tao	306	9	—	—	4	1.5	1,339,009	3.33	2.3
	Progressive Party of Shaoyu	Zhang Donghai	84	12	New			2.0	825,466	2.06	New
	Shaoyu Independence Party	Hou Qiao	84	10	Did not stand in 2020			1.7	686,431	1.71	—
	Conservative Party of Shaoyu	Ding Peizhi	84	12	New			2.0	600,810	1.50	New
	Cheng I / Justice Party	Bo Niu	88	4	—	—	1	0.7	381,139	0.95	0.5
	Independents	—	704	0	—	—		0.0	317,332	0.79	0.3
	Revive Monsilva	Cheng T'an	121	0	—	—		0.0	260,158	0.65
	Monsilvan Pirate Party	Sugita Taro	106	0	—	—		0.0	232,978	0.58
	Unite Party	Ho Teng	84	0	—	—		0.0	168,708	0.42
	Party for Baltanese in Monsilva	Hồ Phi Hải	27	0	—	—		0.0	148,624	0.37	0.1
	Save Shaoyu Again	Su Xiaosheng	22	0	New			0.0	123,784	0.31	New
	Monsilvan Marxist-Petrovist Party	Han Luka	12	0	—	—		0.0	64,270	0.16
	Party of the Emperor	Manchu Hsu	10	0	—	—		0.0	52,219	0.13	0.1
	Parties with fewer than 1000 votes each		46	0	N/A			0.0	12,051	0.03	N/A
Blank and invalid votes									584,492	—	—
Total			6,056	600			160	100.0	40,753,149	100.0	0.0
Registered voters, and turnout									42,591,489	94.31	+1.24

By state

State results by coalition
Seats by state
State	Seats
		FDP / SLP	RNP / Con.	Lib. / Prog.	Green	Soc. Dem.	Innovate	PNP	AfM	SIP	Com.	Cheng I
Amking	118	43	24	20	11	9	5	6	0	—	0	—
Bazhong	24	9	5	5	2	1	0	1	1	—	0	—
Donguan	35	13	6	6	4	4	1	1	0	—	0	—
Huachang	21	7	4	3	5	1	0	1	0	—	0	—
Leibo	14	4	7	2	0	0	0	0	1	—	0	—
Luhai	64	23	11	15	1	2	3	1	1	—	7	—
Maguan	43	18	7	7	4	2	1	3	1	—	0	—
Meixian	58	23	10	11	5	3	3	0	3	—	0	—
Nanyan	16	4	6	3	0	0	0	1	2	—	0	0
Shaoyu	84	37	12	12	5	2	4	0	0	10	2	—
Weishi	19	7	7	3	1	0	0	0	1	—	0	0
Wuzhong	37	13	8	5	4	2	2	0	1	—	0	2
Xiaogu	38	15	8	4	3	2	2	1	3	—	0	—
Xishanjia	16	5	6	0	0	1	0	1	1	—	0	2
Zaixian	13	5	6	0	1	1	0	0	0	—	0	—
Total	600	226	127	96	46	30	21	16	15	10	9	4

While the Freedom and Democracy Party won the most seats, and thefore was elected to lead the next government, it also saw an almost 10% decline in the popular vote, and recieved only 25.4% of the popular vote, the party's lowest ever vote share, and the lowest ever vote share for a winning party since the establishment of the Monsilvan Republic in 1978, beating the Reformed National Party's record low of 35.9% of the popular vote at the 2020 federal election. The Reformed National Party witnessed an incredible loss, losing 20.8% of the popular vote, recieving the party's lowest vote share since the establishment of the republic, beating its previous low of 21.4% in 2008. Although the RNP came second with 115 seats, that was the lowest proportion of seats for the party in the Legislative Assembly since 1978.

On the opposite end of the scale, the Liberal Party made significant gains, winning the most seats in its history, and the party's largest seat proportion with 14.0% of seats, beating its previous record of 13.0% at the 2008 federal election. The party also recieved its highest vote share with 13.0% of the popular vote, beating its previous record of 11.0% also in 2008. The coalition parties of Parliament: the Green Party, the Social Democratic Party, Innovate Monsilva, and the People's New Party, all had record high seat proportions and shares of the popular vote. The radical changes in vote share are consequences of the Electoral Reform Act, passed earlier in the year by the FDP and Liberal Party, which significantly increased the proportionality of voting in Monsilva's federal elections.

Senate

Affiliate		Leader	MPs			Aggregate votes
				Of total			Of total
	Freedom and Democracy Party	Ju Lin	32	37.6%		10,207,743	25.4%
	Reformed National Party	Liao Ping	18	21.2%		6,071,720	15.1%
	Liberal Party	Li She	12	14.1%		5,232,964	13.0%
	Green Party	Ling Hu	8	9.4%		3,396,026	8.5%
	Shaoyu Liberation Party	Fai T'ao	5	5.9%		1,890,392	4.7%
	Social Democratic Party	Wen K'ung	3	3.5%		2,592,362	6.5%
	Progressive Party of Shaoyu	Peng Chou	2	2.4%		825,466	2.1%
	People's New Party	Gang Mao	1	1.2%		2,016,313	5.0%
	Innovate Monsilva	Park Mai	1	1.2%		1,931,301	4.8%
	Monsilvan Communist Party	Lin Chao	1	1.2%		1,339,009	3.3%
	Shaoyu Independence Party	Bobby Hau	1	1.2%		686,431	1.7%
	Conservative Party of Shaoyu	James Lo	1	1.2%		600,810	1.5%

Results of the 2023 federal election to the Senate of Monsilva

Aftermath

The Nationalist Coalition, which had been in government, consisting of the Reformed National Party, Innovate Monsilva and the People's New Party, lost a combined 22 seats, however this was heavily carried by the RNP, who lost a total of 65 seats, while Innovate Monsilva and the PNP gained 17 and 14 seats respectively. They were overtaken by the FDP and the Democratic Coalition who managed to gain a two-seat majority in the Legislative Assembly, and therefore were able to form a majority government without the need to add another coalition party.

The Green Party saw the most success, gaining 38 seats and seeing an increase of 3.6% of the popular vote share. Other smaller parties in the Legislative Assembly, such as the Alternative for Monsilva, the Monsilvan Communist Party and Cheng I also saw seat increases of 10, 4 and 1 respectively and increased vote share.

The second half of this election, saw the introduction of the new Shaoyu Liberation Party, Conservative Party of Shaoyu and Progressive Party of Shaoyu to Parliament. The Shaoyu Independence Party also ran candidates in this election, the first election they were able to participate in since 1969. They managed to get 10 seats elected to the Legislative Assembly.

See also

• Elections in Monsilva
• Parliamentary elections in Monsilva