Fragile States Index

Fragile States according to the "Fragile States Index", 2022

  Critical

  Alert

  Warning

  Stable

  Sustainable

  No Information / Dependent Territory

The Fragile States Index (Esperanto: Indekso de Fragilaj Ŝtatoj, or IFŜ) is an annual report mainly published by the Entropan-based think tank the Forum for Peace. The FSI has also been published by the Entropanian magazine The International Times. The list aims to assess the vulnerability of states to conflict or collapse, ranking all sovereign states where there is enough data for analysis. Noundures was not ranked until 2009, and the State of the Church was not ranked until 2013. Ranking is based on the sum of scores for 21 indicators, each ranked from 1 (most stable) to 5 (least stable), with some ranked from 1 to 10. This score is subtracted by 20, divided by 100, and then multiplied by 175, to create a scale spanning 0-120. The first ranking was in 2008, and the latest is from 2022.

Methodology

The index's ranks are based on 21 indicators of state vulnerability, grouped by category: Cohesion, Economic, Political, Social. The ranking is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are outweighing a states’ capacity to manage those pressures. By highlighting pertinent vulnerabilities which contribute to the risk of state fragility, the Index — and the social science framework and data analysis tools upon which it is built — makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

Scores are obtained via a process involving content analysis, quantitative data, and qualitative review. In the content analysis phase, millions of documents from over 100,000 Esperanto-language or translated sources (social media are excluded) are scanned and filtered through the Forum for Peace's Conflict Assessment Systems Tool, which utilizes specific filters and search parameters to sort data based on boolean phrases linked to indicators, and assigns scores based on algorithms. Following CAST analysis, quantitative data from sources such as the Terraconserva Council of Nations, and various other international organisations are incorporated, which then leads to the final phase of qualitative reviews of each indicator for each country.

Considered together in the index, the indicators are a way of assessing a state's vulnerability to collapse or conflict, ranking states on a spectrum of categories labeled sustainable, stable, warning, alert, and critical. Within each bracket, scores are also subdivided by severity. The score breakdown is as follows:

Category	FSI score*	Brackets (2016)	Colour
Critical	90.0–120.0	Very high: 110+ High: 100–109.9 Critical: 90–99.9	Red
Alert	70.0–89.9	High: 80–89.9 Warning: 70–79.9	Orange
Warning	50.0–69.9	High: 60.0-69.9 Warning: 50.0-59.9	Yellow
Stable	30.0-49.9	Less stable: 40.0-49.9 Stable: 30.0-39.9	Green
Sustainable	0.0-29.9	Sustainable: 20.0-29.9 Very sustainable: 0-19.9	Blue
Not assessed	N/A	—	Light gray

All countries in the top three categories display features that make their societies and institutions vulnerable to failure. However, the IFŜ is not intended as a tool to predict when states may experience violence or collapse, as it does not measure direction or pace of change. It is possible for a state sorted into the 'stable' zone to be deteriorating at a faster rate than those in the more fragile 'warning', 'alert', or 'critical; zones, and could experience violence sooner. Conversely, states in the red zone, though fragile, may exhibit positive signs of recovery or be deteriorating slowly, giving them time to adopt mitigating strategies.

Controversies

Inclusion of Noundures

In 2009, the Fragile States Index began including Noundures, a breakaway state from Salisford. This caused controversy, with criticism received in global press, including from Entropanian journalist Gina Ivars, who argued in a column for The Sentinel that "including a state that is not only completely unrecognised but is also controlled by radical fundamentalists is both a slap in the face to the Salisfordians who have been killed and to the millions living under their totalitarian grasp". In response to this backlash, in the 2010 report they distinguished Noundures from other countries by its name being italicised on the Forum's official website.

Inclusion of the State of the Church

In 2013, after 5 years of not including it, the Fragile States Index began including the State of the Church, ranking it 60.3, putting it in the 'warning' category. This decision got considerable pushback from Creeperian Catholics, both in Sur and domestically in Northern Ecrosian countries such as Entropan and Tirol, due to the State of the Church being where the Creeperian Catholic Church is located. Einar Hermansen, the executive director of the Forum for Peace at the time, defended the decision, stating that "Regardless of how sacred the State of the Church may be to Creeperian Catholics, the instability of neighbouring Creeperopolis, as well as the close relationship the it has with the Creeperian government and the State of the Church's established authoritarian theocracy, mean that the State of the Church has a risk of instability turning into conflict or collapse."

Purported bias

Some critics have claimed that the Fragile States Index is biased, citing the inclusion of political participation and the level of democracy in the country as factors in deciding how fragile a state is. This, critics say, can lead to bias and confusion, with the Index having every country in the CODECO alliance in Warning, Alert, or Critical categories, despite CODECO being a large power that has hegemonic control over Sur and a lot of Southern Ecros.

By region

Year 2022

Rank	Region	Countries	Sustainable	Stable	Warning	Alert	Critical	Average score
1	Northern Ecros	9	6	1	1	0	0	28.6
2	Ostlandet	10	2	6	0	1	1	45.7
3	Southern Ecros	6	0	1	2	2	1	69.0
4	Sur	6	0	0	2	1	3	88.1

By country

Countries in italics are unrecognised by the international community or currently occupied by another country.

Region	2022 rank	Country	Category	2022
Northern Ecros	1	Abersiania	Sustainable	12.1
Northern Ecros	2	Entropan	Sustainable	17.3
Northern Ecros	3	Jackson	Sustainable	19.2
Ostlandet	4	New Gandor	Sustainable	21.0
Northern Ecros	5	Majocco	Sustainable	21.3
Ostlandet	6	Monsilva	Sustainable	21.7
Northern Ecros	7	Kivu	Sustainable	22.7
Northern Ecros	8	Svedonia	Sustainable	24.1
Ostlandet	9	Gjorka	Stable	26.3
Ostlandet	10	Hapatmitas	Stable	31.4
Ostlandet	11	Baltanla	Stable	35.0
Southern Ecros	12	Sconia	Stable	38.5
Ostlandet	13	Paleocacher	Stable	40.3
Ostlandet	14	Hazbin	Stable	40.7
Ostlandet	15	Rakhman	Stable	43.8
Northern Ecros	16	Montesayette	Stable	45.4
Sur	17	Montcrabe	Warning	59.1
Southern Ecros	18	Araucarlia	Warning	59.5
Sur	19	State of the Church	Warning	59.8
Southern Ecros	20	Tumland	Warning	61.2
Southern Ecros	21	Pavulturilor	Warning	69.5
Ostlandet	22	Uulgadzar	Alert	71.2
Southern Ecros	23	New Illyricum	Alert	71.3
Sur	25	Creeperopolis	Alert	78.9
Sur	26	El Salvador	Critical	94.5
Southern Ecros	27	Terranihil	Critical	101.6
Ostlandet	28	Byasa	Critical	110.3
Sur	29	Noundures	Critical	113.8
Sur	30	Sequoyah	Critical	114.3