Difference between revisions of "2024 Kesva election"

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The '''next Senedh election''' is due to be held on or before 9 February 2025 to elect 30 members to the [[Senedh Kernev]] (Kernevic Parliament; {{Lang-kv|Senedh}}). The composition of the elected Senedh will determine the next [[Government of Kernev]].
+
{{Infobox election
 +
| election_name    = 2024 Kesva election
 +
| country          = Kernev
 +
| type              = parliamentary<!-- presidential, parliamentary, legislative, primary, or by-election --><!-- MANDATORY, and limited to the preceding five types -->
 +
| vote_type        = Popular <!-- default -->
 +
| ongoing          = yes
 +
| party_colour      =
 +
| party_name        =
 +
| alliance_name    =
 +
| previous_election = 2020 Kesva election
 +
| previous_year    = 2020
 +
| outgoing_members  =
 +
| election_date    = 22 December 2024
 +
| elected_members  =
 +
| next_election    = Next Kesva election<!--page title, will be linked if it exists-->
 +
| next_year        =  ''Next''
 +
| votes_for_election=
 +
| needed_votes      =
 +
| seats_for_election= All 30 seats in the [[Kesva Kernev]]
 +
| majority_seats    = 15
 +
| opinion_polls    = Opinion polling for the next Kesva election
 +
| registered        =
 +
| turnout          =
 +
| time_zone        =
 +
| image_upright    =
 +
| filler            = <!-- (fills whitespace to the left of image1 with filler text, such as "Political selections")-->
 +
 
 +
<!--        person 1        -->
 +
| image1            = Jane-dodds (cropped).jpg
 +
| image1_size      = 120px
 +
| image1_upright    =
 +
| colour1          = d5c229
 +
| nominee1          = <!-- when appropriate, candidate1 can be used instead -->
 +
| candidate1        = <!-- any type of election -->
 +
| leader1          = [[Morwenna Pascoe]] <!-- legislative or parliamentary only-->
 +
| party1            = Mebyon Kernev
 +
| alliance1        =
 +
| leader_since1    =
 +
| leaders_seat1    = [[Aberfal (ward)|Aberfal]]
 +
| last_election1    = 42.0%, 19 seats
 +
| seats_before1    =
 +
| seats_needed1    = {{steady}}
 +
| seats1            =
 +
| seats_after1      =
 +
| seat_change1      =
 +
| popular_vote1    =
 +
| percentage1      =
 +
| swing1            = <!-- legislative or parliamentary only-->
 +
 
 +
<!--        person 2        -->
 +
| image2            = Official portrait of Richard Thomson MP crop 2.jpg
 +
| image2_size      = 120px
 +
| image2_upright    =
 +
| colour2          = 1A1A1A
 +
| nominee2          = <!-- presidential only, when appropriate, candidate2 can be used instead -->
 +
| candidate2        = <!-- any type of election -->
 +
| leader2          = [[Mevor mab Petroc]]<!-- legislative or parliamentary only-->
 +
| party2            = [[Bora Keltek]]
 +
| alliance2        =
 +
<!-- legislative or parliamentary -->
 +
| leader_since2    =
 +
| leaders_seat2    = [[Trewordhel (ward)|Trewordhel]]
 +
| last_election2    = 19.8%, 6 seats
 +
| seats_before2    =
 +
| seats_needed2    = {{increase}} 10
 +
| seats2            =
 +
| seats_after2      =
 +
| seat_change2      =
 +
<!-- any -->
 +
| popular_vote2    =
 +
| percentage2      =
 +
| swing2            = <!-- legislative or parliamentary only-->
 +
 
 +
<!--        person 3        -->
 +
| image3            = Official portrait of Mhairi Black MP crop 2.jpg
 +
| image3_size      = 120px
 +
| image3_upright    =
 +
| colour3          = 00C2CB
 +
| nominee3          = <!-- presidential only, when appropriate, candidate3 can be used instead -->
 +
| candidate3        = <!-- any type of election -->
 +
| leader3          = [[Yseult Cydweli]]<!-- legislative or parliamentary only-->
 +
| party3            = [[Unyans Kernevek]]
 +
| alliance3        =
 +
<!-- legislative or parliamentary -->
 +
| leader_since3    =
 +
| leaders_seat3    = [[Truru (ward)|Truru]]
 +
| last_election3    = 18.2%, 4 seats
 +
| seats_before3    =
 +
| seats_needed3    = {{increase}} 11
 +
| seats3            =
 +
| seats_after3      =
 +
| seat_change3      =
 +
<!-- any -->
 +
| popular_vote3    =
 +
| percentage3      =
 +
| swing3            = <!-- legislative or parliamentary only-->
 +
 
 +
<!-- polls -->
 +
| poll1_date        =
 +
| poll1_source      =
 +
| poll1_nominee1    = <!-- presidential only, when appropriate, poll1_candidate1 can be used instead -->
 +
| poll1_party1      = <!-- legislative or parliamentary only-->
 +
| poll1_nominee2    = <!-- presidential only, when appropriate, poll1_candidate2 can be used instead -->
 +
| poll1_party2      = <!-- legislative or parliamentary only-->
 +
| poll2_date        =
 +
| poll2_source      =
 +
| poll2_nominee1    = <!-- presidential only, when appropriate, poll2_candidate1 can be used instead -->
 +
| poll2_party1      = <!-- legislative or parliamentary only-->
 +
| poll2_nominee2    = <!-- presidential only, when appropriate, poll2_candidate2 can be used instead -->
 +
| poll2_party2      = <!-- legislative or parliamentary only-->
 +
 
 +
<!-- auxiliary rows -->
 +
| 1blank            =
 +
| 1data1            =
 +
| 1data2            =
 +
| 2blank            =
 +
| 2data1            =
 +
| 2data2            =
 +
 
 +
<!-- map -->
 +
| map_image        =
 +
| map_size          =
 +
| map_alt          =
 +
| map              =
 +
| map_caption      =
 +
 
 +
<!-- bottom -->
 +
| title            =
 +
| before_election  =
 +
| before_party      =
 +
| posttitle        =
 +
| after_election    =
 +
| after_party      =
 +
}}
 +
 
 +
The '''2024 Kesva election''' is due to be held on 22 December 2024 to elect 30 members to the [[Kesva Kernev]] (Kernevic Parliament; {{Lang-kv|Kesva}}), following the dissolution of the previous Kesva by the [[Monarchy of Kernev|Prince of Kernev]] on 2 December 2024. The composition of the elected Kesva will determine the next [[Government of Kernev]]. The election is to be held on the same day as the inaugural [[2024 Ostlandet Parliament election in Kernev|Ostlandet Parliament election]].
 +
 
 +
The campaign commenced in the immediate aftermath of the [[TCT 168 hijacking]], the first major terrorist attack on Kernevic soil. Incumbent [[Prime Minister of Kernev|Prime Minister]] [[Morwenna Pascoe]] and [[Mebyon Kernev]] have maintained a substantial lead in the opinion polls throughout the campaign. The main issues in the election are security, fishing reforms and same-sex marriage.
 +
 
 +
==Background==
 +
The previous Kesva first met on 20 January 2020 and could be dissolved no later than 20 January 2025, this meant the election could be called no later than 9 February 2025.
 +
 
 +
Throughout 2024 speculation around the potential election date grew, and by September there was substantial speculation suggesting a 22 December election in line with the Ostlandet Parliament election.<ref>{{Cite web|last=mab Iona|first=Rhun|date=10 September 2024|title=Speculation grows over Kesva election date|url=https://www.nationstates.net/page=rmb/postid=56936394|access-date=9 December 2024|website=An Gorhel Fardellik|language=[[Kernevic language|Kernevic]]}}</ref>
 +
 
 +
On the morning of 10 September 2024 flight TCT 168 from [[Gardena]] to [[Lannwedhenek Airport]] via the [[Arcraibh Isles]] was hijacked by three armed individuals, resulting in an emergency landing at Lannwedhenek. The attack took a number of high profile Paleocacherian hostages, with the attackers demanding the release of [[Vladimir Kareiv]]. The operation to free the hostages conducted by the Kernevic [[KDE]] and Paleocacherian special forces later that day saw no casualties and the capture of the attackers. The response by the Kernevic government was widely viewed as a success and saw a substantial increase in [[Morwenna Pascoe|Pascoe]]'s personal approval and the support for [[Mebyon Kernev]].<ref>{{Cite web|last=|first=|date=16 September 2024|title=Weekly tracker|url=https://www.nationstates.net/page=rmb/postid=57270341|access-date=9 December 2024|website=An Vreus|language=[[Kernevic language|Kernevic]]}}</ref>
 +
 
 +
A week after the attack, on 17 September 2024, Pascoe announced that the Kesva election is to be held coterminously with the [[2024 Ostlandet Parliament election in Kernev|Ostlandet Parliament election]] on 22 December.<ref>{{Cite web|last=|first=|date=17 September 2024|title=Statement 17/9/24 [transcript]|url=https://www.nationstates.net/page=rmb/postid=57270650|access-date=9 December 2024|website=Prime Minister of Kernev|language=[[Kernevic language|Kernevic]]}}</ref> The initial state of the election with Mebyon Kernev polling above 50% saw some pundits questioning whether the race was a "foregone conclusion".<ref>{{Cite web|last=|first=|date=20 September 2024|title=A foregone conclusion? MK on course for historic victory|url=https://www.nationstates.net/page=rmb/postid=57289274|access-date=9 December 2024|website=An Gorhel Fardellik|language=[[Kernevic language|Kernevic]]}}</ref> Opposition parties criticised the timing of the election as conflating the national interest with the personal and partisan interests of Pascoe.
 +
 
 +
===Changes to the composition of the Kesva before the election===
 +
 
 +
The death of  [[Cador Polglaze]] on 16 October 2023 triggered a by-election in the [[Wards of Kernev|Kesva ward]] of [[Porth Plymm & Pennperan (ward)|Porth Plymm & Pennperan]]. The seat was retained by Mebyon Kernev on 17 November 2023 in the [[2023 Porth Plymm & Pennperan by-election]] with a majority of just 314. [[Jory Penhallow]] resigned from [[Bora Keltek]] on 28 March 2024, citing differences in opinion with [[Mevor mab Petroc]], he then sat as an [[Independent politician|independent]]. As such the makeup of the Kesva on dissolution was Mebyon Kernev: 19, Bora Keltek: 5, [[Unyans Kernevek]]: 4, with one independent and the [[Lewydh]].
  
 
==Opinion polling==
 
==Opinion polling==
Line 8: Line 158:
 
! rowspan="2"|Client
 
! rowspan="2"|Client
 
! rowspan="2" data-sort-type="number"|Sample <br />size
 
! rowspan="2" data-sort-type="number"|Sample <br />size
−
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Mebyon Kernev|MK]]<br /><small>[[Ostlandet Liberal and Centrist Party|PLMO]]</small>
+
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Mebyon Kernev|MK]]
−
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Bora Keltek|BK]]<br /><small>[[Sovereigntist Group|BF]]</small>
+
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Bora Keltek|BK]]
−
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Unyans Kernevek|UK]]<br /><small>[[Progressive and Social Democratic Alliance|CASD]]</small>
+
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Unyans Kernevek|UK]]
−
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Folk Party (Kernev)|PG]]<br /><small>[[Democratic Conservative Group|BDT]]</small>
+
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Folk Party (Kernev)|PG]]
−
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Socialist Labour Party (Kernev)|PLS]]<br/><small>[[Socialist Left (Ostlandet Union)|SC]]</small>
+
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Socialist Labour Party (Kernev)|PLS]]
−
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Ecology Party (Kernev)|Eco]]<br/><small>[[Party for the Environment (Ostlandet Union)|PAÀ]]</small>
+
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Ecology Party (Kernev)|Eco]]
 
! rowspan="2" class="unsortable" style="width:75px;"|Others
 
! rowspan="2" class="unsortable" style="width:75px;"|Others
 
! rowspan="2" data-sort-type="number"|Lead
 
! rowspan="2" data-sort-type="number"|Lead
Line 23: Line 173:
 
! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Socialist Labour Party (Kernev)}};"|
 
! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Socialist Labour Party (Kernev)}};"|
 
! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Ecology Party (Kernev)}};"|
 
! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Ecology Party (Kernev)}};"|
 +
|-
 +
|{{opdrts|19|20|Sept|2024|year}}
 +
|[https://www.nationstates.net/page=rmb/postid=57289274 MBS Election Polling]
 +
|''An Gorhel Fardellik''
 +
|981
 +
|style="background:#F1E6C1;color:black"|'''50%'''
 +
|19%
 +
|18%
 +
|8%
 +
|2%
 +
|3%
 +
|0%
 +
|style="background:{{party color|Mebyon Kernev}};color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="31"|31
 +
|-
 +
|{{opdrts||18|Sept|2024|year}}
 +
|[https://www.nationstates.net/page=rmb/postid=57279311 MacAlister Polling]
 +
|''Nowodhow a Gernev''
 +
|1,271
 +
|style="background:#F1E6C1;color:black"|'''52%'''
 +
|16%
 +
|18%
 +
|8%
 +
|5%
 +
|6%
 +
|3%
 +
|style="background:{{party color|Mebyon Kernev}};color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="34"|34
 +
|-
 +
|{{opdrts||17|Sept|2024|year}}
 +
| colspan="12" |[[Morwenna Pascoe]] announces that the [[2024 Kesva election|Kesva election]] will be held on 22 December 2024
 +
|-
 +
|{{opdrts|15|16|Sept|2024|year}}
 +
|[https://www.nationstates.net/page=rmb/postid=57270341 An Vreus]
 +
|–
 +
|1,000
 +
|style="background:#F1E6C1;color:black"|'''43%'''
 +
|16%
 +
|21%
 +
|8%
 +
|3%
 +
|8%
 +
|2%
 +
|style="background:{{party color|Mebyon Kernev}};color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="22"|22
 
|-
 
|-
 
|{{opdrts|8|9|Sept|2024|year}}
 
|{{opdrts|8|9|Sept|2024|year}}
Line 35: Line 227:
 
|7%
 
|7%
 
|2%
 
|2%
−
|style="background:{{party color|Mebyon Kernev}};color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="25"|19
+
|style="background:{{party color|Mebyon Kernev}};color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="19"|19
 
|- style="background:#E5E5F5;font-style:italic;"
 
|- style="background:#E5E5F5;font-style:italic;"
 
|{{opdrts||19|Jan|2020|year}}
 
|{{opdrts||19|Jan|2020|year}}
−
| [[2020 Senedh election]]
+
| [[2020 Kesva election]]
 
| –
 
| –
 
| –
 
| –
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|}
 
|}
  
 +
===Leadership approval: Pascoe===
 +
{| class="wikitable collapsible sortable" style="text-align:center;font-size:95%;line-height:14px;"
 +
|-
 +
! style="width:125px;" rowspan="2"| Date(s)<br>conducted
 +
! style="width:200px;" rowspan="2"| Pollster
 +
! style="width:60px;" rowspan="2"| Sample size
 +
! style="width:120px;" rowspan="2"| Question<br>wording
 +
! class="unsortable" style="width:80px;"| Approve
 +
! class="unsortable" style="width: 80px;"| Disapprove
 +
! class="unsortable" style="width:80px;"| Neither
 +
! class="unsortable" style="width:80px;" rowspan="2"| Don't know
 +
! class="unsortable" style="width:20px;" rowspan="2"| Net approval
 +
|-
 +
! class="unsortable" style="color:inherit;background:green;width:60px;"|
 +
! class="unsortable" style="color:inherit;background:red;width:60px;"|
 +
! class="unsortable" style="color:inherit;background:grey;width:60px;"|
 +
|-
 +
|{{opdrts|15|16|Sept|2024|year}}
 +
|[https://www.nationstates.net/page=rmb/postid=57270341 An Vreus]
 +
|1,000
 +
|Favourable/Unfavourable
 +
|style="background:#C1F0C1"|'''46%'''
 +
|24%
 +
|30%
 +
|{{N/A}}
 +
|style="background:green;color:white;"|'''+22%'''
 +
|}
 +
 +
==References==
 +
{{Reflist}}
  
 
[[Category:2020s elections in Kernev]]
 
[[Category:2020s elections in Kernev]]
 
[[Category:Future elections in Kernev]]
 
[[Category:Future elections in Kernev]]
−
[[Category:Senedh elections]]
+
[[Category:Kesva elections]]
 
[[Category:Premiership of Morwenna Pascoe]]
 
[[Category:Premiership of Morwenna Pascoe]]
 
[[Category:Kernev]]
 
[[Category:Kernev]]
 
[[Category:Terraconserva]]
 
[[Category:Terraconserva]]

Latest revision as of 10:52, 21 December 2024

2024 Kesva election
← 2020 22 December 2024 Next →
All 30 seats in the Kesva Kernev
15 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Jane-dodds (cropped).jpg Official portrait of Richard Thomson MP crop 2.jpg Official portrait of Mhairi Black MP crop 2.jpg
Leader Morwenna Pascoe Mevor mab Petroc Yseult Cydweli
Party Mebyon Kernev Bora Keltek Unyans Kernevek
Leader's seat Aberfal Trewordhel Truru
Last election 42.0%, 19 seats 19.8%, 6 seats 18.2%, 4 seats
Seats needed Steady Increase 10 Increase 11

The 2024 Kesva election is due to be held on 22 December 2024 to elect 30 members to the Kesva Kernev (Kernevic Parliament; Kernevic: Kesva), following the dissolution of the previous Kesva by the Prince of Kernev on 2 December 2024. The composition of the elected Kesva will determine the next Government of Kernev. The election is to be held on the same day as the inaugural Ostlandet Parliament election.

The campaign commenced in the immediate aftermath of the TCT 168 hijacking, the first major terrorist attack on Kernevic soil. Incumbent Prime Minister Morwenna Pascoe and Mebyon Kernev have maintained a substantial lead in the opinion polls throughout the campaign. The main issues in the election are security, fishing reforms and same-sex marriage.

Background

The previous Kesva first met on 20 January 2020 and could be dissolved no later than 20 January 2025, this meant the election could be called no later than 9 February 2025.

Throughout 2024 speculation around the potential election date grew, and by September there was substantial speculation suggesting a 22 December election in line with the Ostlandet Parliament election.[1]

On the morning of 10 September 2024 flight TCT 168 from Gardena to Lannwedhenek Airport via the Arcraibh Isles was hijacked by three armed individuals, resulting in an emergency landing at Lannwedhenek. The attack took a number of high profile Paleocacherian hostages, with the attackers demanding the release of Vladimir Kareiv. The operation to free the hostages conducted by the Kernevic KDE and Paleocacherian special forces later that day saw no casualties and the capture of the attackers. The response by the Kernevic government was widely viewed as a success and saw a substantial increase in Pascoe's personal approval and the support for Mebyon Kernev.[2]

A week after the attack, on 17 September 2024, Pascoe announced that the Kesva election is to be held coterminously with the Ostlandet Parliament election on 22 December.[3] The initial state of the election with Mebyon Kernev polling above 50% saw some pundits questioning whether the race was a "foregone conclusion".[4] Opposition parties criticised the timing of the election as conflating the national interest with the personal and partisan interests of Pascoe.

Changes to the composition of the Kesva before the election

The death of Cador Polglaze on 16 October 2023 triggered a by-election in the Kesva ward of Porth Plymm & Pennperan. The seat was retained by Mebyon Kernev on 17 November 2023 in the 2023 Porth Plymm & Pennperan by-election with a majority of just 314. Jory Penhallow resigned from Bora Keltek on 28 March 2024, citing differences in opinion with Mevor mab Petroc, he then sat as an independent. As such the makeup of the Kesva on dissolution was Mebyon Kernev: 19, Bora Keltek: 5, Unyans Kernevek: 4, with one independent and the Lewydh.

Opinion polling

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		MK BK UK PG PLS Eco Others Lead
19–20 Sep 2024 MBS Election Polling An Gorhel Fardellik 981 50% 19% 18% 8% 2% 3% 0% 31
18 Sep 2024 MacAlister Polling Nowodhow a Gernev 1,271 52% 16% 18% 8% 5% 6% 3% 34
17 Sep 2024 Morwenna Pascoe announces that the Kesva election will be held on 22 December 2024
15–16 Sep 2024 An Vreus – 1,000 43% 16% 21% 8% 3% 8% 2% 22
8–9 Sep 2024 An Vreus – 1,000 39% 19% 20% 10% 3% 7% 2% 19
19 Jan 2020 2020 Kesva election – – 42.0% 19.8% 18.2% 10.3% 4.1% 3.8% 1.7% 22.2

Leadership approval: Pascoe

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Sample size Question
wording 		Approve Disapprove Neither Don't know Net approval
15–16 Sep 2024 An Vreus 1,000 Favourable/Unfavourable 46% 24% 30% — +22%

References

  1. ↑ mab Iona, Rhun (10 September 2024). "Speculation grows over Kesva election date". An Gorhel Fardellik (in Kernevic). Retrieved 9 December 2024.CS1 maint: unrecognized language (link)
  2. ↑ "Weekly tracker". An Vreus (in Kernevic). 16 September 2024. Retrieved 9 December 2024.CS1 maint: unrecognized language (link)
  3. ↑ "Statement 17/9/24 [transcript]". Prime Minister of Kernev (in Kernevic). 17 September 2024. Retrieved 9 December 2024.CS1 maint: unrecognized language (link)
  4. ↑ "A foregone conclusion? MK on course for historic victory". An Gorhel Fardellik (in Kernevic). 20 September 2024. Retrieved 9 December 2024.CS1 maint: unrecognized language (link)
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