Difference between revisions of "2024 Ostlandet Parliament election in Daesdain"

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| party1        = [[Cynnydd Brawpobl]]
 
| party1        = [[Cynnydd Brawpobl]]
 
| alliance1      = [[Democratic Conservative Group|BDT/DKG]]
 
| alliance1      = [[Democratic Conservative Group|BDT/DKG]]
−
| leaders_seat1  = [[Barf y Llew (Ostlandet Parliament constituency)|Barf y Llew]]
+
| leaders_seat1  = [[Barf y Llew and Ynys Elk (Ostlandet Parliament constituency)|Barf y Llew and Ynys Elk]]
 
| last_election1 =  
 
| last_election1 =  
 
| seats1        =  
 
| seats1        =  
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| party5        = [[Protestant Labor Rights Party (Daesdain)|Protestant Labor Rights Party]]
 
| party5        = [[Protestant Labor Rights Party (Daesdain)|Protestant Labor Rights Party]]
 
| alliance5      = [[Ostlandet Group for Regionalists and Minorities|BLMO/GODRM]]
 
| alliance5      = [[Ostlandet Group for Regionalists and Minorities|BLMO/GODRM]]
−
| leaders_seat5  = [[Ynys Rhuddfedel (Ostlandet Parliament constituency)|Ynys Rhuddfedel]]
+
| leaders_seat5  = [[Gorllewin y Dref (Ostlandet Parliament constituency)|Gorllewin y Dref]]
 
| last_election5 =  
 
| last_election5 =  
 
| seats5        =  
 
| seats5        =  
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}}
 
}}
  
−
The '''2024 Ostlandet Parliament election''' in [[Daesdain]] is due to take place on December 22, 2024, to elect all TBD members of the Daesdic contingent to the [[Ostlandet Parliament]] for the first time. Daesdain is split into 8 [[Ostlandet Parliament Constituencies|constituencies]], each electing one member of the Daesdic delegation.   
+
The '''2024 Ostlandet Parliament election''' in [[Daesdain]] is due to take place on December 22, 2024, to elect all 8 members of the Daesdic contingent to the [[Ostlandet Parliament]] for the first time. Daesdain is split into 8 [[Ostlandet Parliament Constituencies|constituencies]], each electing one member of the Daesdic delegation.   
 
== Opinion polling ==
 
== Opinion polling ==
 +
 +
=== Primary vote ===
 
{|class="wikitable sortable collapsible" style="text-align:center;font-size:95%;line-height:14px;"
 
{|class="wikitable sortable collapsible" style="text-align:center;font-size:95%;line-height:14px;"
 
|- style="height:42px;"
 
|- style="height:42px;"
Line 84: Line 86:
 
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;" rowspan="2"| Sample<br />size
 
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;" rowspan="2"| Sample<br />size
 
! class="unsortable" style="width:100px;"| [[Cynnydd Brawpobl|CB]]<br>{{small|[[Democratic Conservative Group|BDT]]}}
 
! class="unsortable" style="width:100px;"| [[Cynnydd Brawpobl|CB]]<br>{{small|[[Democratic Conservative Group|BDT]]}}
−
! class="unsortable" style="width:100px;"| [[Free Liberal Party (Daesdain)|YBRR]]<br>{{small|[[Ostlandet Liberal and Centrist Party|PLMO]]}}
+
! class="unsortable" style="width:100px;"| [[Free Liberal Party (Daesdain)|RFP]]<br>{{small|[[Ostlandet Liberal and Centrist Party|PLMO]]}}
−
! class="unsortable" style="width:100px;"| [[Green Party (Daesdain)|TBW]]<br>{{small|[[Party for the Environment (Ostlandet Union)|PAÀ]]}}
+
! class="unsortable" style="width:100px;"| [[Green Party (Daesdain)|PW]]<br>{{small|[[Party for the Environment (Ostlandet Union)|PAÀ]]}}
 
! class="unsortable" style="width:100px;"| [[Protestant Labor Rights Party (Daesdain)|PHLP]]<br />{{small|[[Ostlandet Group for Regionalists and Minorities|BLMO]]}}
 
! class="unsortable" style="width:100px;"| [[Protestant Labor Rights Party (Daesdain)|PHLP]]<br />{{small|[[Ostlandet Group for Regionalists and Minorities|BLMO]]}}
 
! class="unsortable" style="width:100px;" rowspan="2"| {{abbr|O/I|Others/Independents}}
 
! class="unsortable" style="width:100px;" rowspan="2"| {{abbr|O/I|Others/Independents}}
Line 94: Line 96:
 
! style="background:#4A6A55"; |  
 
! style="background:#4A6A55"; |  
 
! style="background:#00FFFF"; |
 
! style="background:#00FFFF"; |
 +
|-
 +
|data-sort-value="2024-12-19"|{{nowrap|December 19, 2024}}
 +
|data-sort-value="DIPA"|Daesdain Independent Pollsters Association
 +
|2,083
 +
|43%
 +
|style="background:#C6CB56"|45%
 +
|8%
 +
|3.5%
 +
|0.5%
 +
|style="background:#F5FF1C; color:#000000;"| 2%
 +
|-
 +
|data-sort-value="2024-12-16"|{{nowrap|December 16, 2024}}
 +
|data-sort-value="NDP"|National Daesdic Polls
 +
|2,453
 +
|43%
 +
|style="background:#C6CB56"|44%
 +
|7.5%
 +
|4.5%
 +
|1%
 +
|style="background:#F5FF1C; color:#000000;"| 1%
 +
|-
 +
|data-sort-value="2024-12-13"|{{nowrap|December 13, 2024}}
 +
|data-sort-value="DIPA"|Daesdain Independent Pollsters Association
 +
|2,100
 +
|style="background:#a8b7ff"|43%
 +
|42%
 +
|9%
 +
|5%
 +
|1%
 +
|style="background:#65CAFF; color:#000000;"| 1%
 +
|-
 +
|data-sort-value="2024-12-10"|{{nowrap|December 10, 2024}}
 +
|data-sort-value="NDP"|National Daesdic Polls
 +
|2,219
 +
|style="background:#a8b7ff"|44%
 +
|43%
 +
|8%
 +
|4%
 +
|1%
 +
|style="background:#65CAFF; color:#000000;"| 1%
 
|-
 
|-
 
|data-sort-value="2024-12-5"|{{nowrap|December 5, 2024}}
 
|data-sort-value="2024-12-5"|{{nowrap|December 5, 2024}}
Line 234: Line 276:
 
|0.5%
 
|0.5%
 
|style="background:#65CAFF; color:#000000;"| 41.3%
 
|style="background:#65CAFF; color:#000000;"| 41.3%
 +
|}
 +
 +
=== Two-party preferred ===
 +
{|class="wikitable sortable collapsible" style="text-align:center;font-size:95%;line-height:14px;"
 +
|- style="height:42px;"
 +
! style="width:110px;" rowspan="2"| Last date conducted
 +
! style="width:300px;" rowspan="2"| Polling firm
 +
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;" rowspan="2"| Sample<br />size
 +
! class="unsortable" style="width:100px;"| [[Cynnydd Brawpobl|CB]]<br>{{small|[[Democratic Conservative Group|BDT]]}}
 +
! class="unsortable" style="width:100px;"| [[Free Liberal Party (Daesdain)|RFP]]<br>{{small|[[Ostlandet Liberal and Centrist Party|PLMO]]}}
 +
! style="width:50px;" rowspan="2"| Lead
 +
|-
 +
|data-sort-value="2024-12-19"|{{nowrap|December 19, 2024}}
 +
|data-sort-value="DIPA"|Daesdain Independent Pollsters Association
 +
|2,083
 +
|47%
 +
|style="background:#C6CB56"|53%
 +
|style="background:#F5FF1C; color:#000000;"| 6%
 +
|-
 +
|data-sort-value="2024-12-16"|{{nowrap|December 16, 2024}}
 +
|data-sort-value="NDP"|National Daesdic Polls
 +
|2,453
 +
|47%
 +
|style="background:#C6CB56"|53%
 +
|style="background:#F5FF1C; color:#000000;"| 6%
 +
|-
 +
|data-sort-value="2024-12-13"|{{nowrap|December 13, 2024}}
 +
|data-sort-value="DIPA"|Daesdain Independent Pollsters Association
 +
|2,100
 +
|48%
 +
|style="background:#C6CB56"|52%
 +
|style="background:#F5FF1C; color:#000000;"| 4%
 +
|-
 +
|data-sort-value="2024-12-10"|{{nowrap|December 10, 2024}}
 +
|data-sort-value="NDP"|National Daesdic Polls
 +
|2,219
 +
|49%
 +
|style="background:#C6CB56"|51%
 +
|style="background:#F5FF1C; color:#000000;"| 2%
 +
|-
 +
|data-sort-value="2024-12-5"|{{nowrap|December 5, 2024}}
 +
|data-sort-value="SSUP"|Saint Siffre University Polls
 +
|1,562
 +
|49%
 +
|style="background:#C6CB56"|51%
 +
|style="background:#F5FF1C; color:#000000;"| 2%
 +
|-
 +
|data-sort-value="2024-12-1"|{{nowrap|December 1, 2024}}
 +
|data-sort-value="DIPA"|Daesdain Independent Pollsters Association
 +
|1,591
 +
|48%
 +
|style="background:#C6CB56"|52%
 +
|style="background:#F5FF1C; color:#000000;"| 4%
 +
|-
 +
|data-sort-value="2024-11-30"|{{nowrap|November 30, 2024}}
 +
|data-sort-value="FPFD"|Flash Polls for Daesdain
 +
|1,877
 +
|style="background:#a8b7ff"|51%
 +
|49%
 +
|style="background:#65CAFF; color:#000000;"| 2%
 +
|-
 +
|data-sort-value="2024-11-25"|{{nowrap|November 25, 2024}}
 +
|data-sort-value="NDP"|National Daesdic Polls
 +
|2,328
 +
|style="background:#a8b7ff"|51%
 +
|49%
 +
|style="background:#65CAFF; color:#000000;"| 2%
 +
|-
 +
|data-sort-value="2024-11-15"|{{nowrap|November 15, 2024}}
 +
|data-sort-value="SSUP"|Saint Siffre University Polls
 +
|1,114
 +
|style="background:#a8b7ff"|52%
 +
|47%
 +
|style="background:#65CAFF; color:#000000;"| 6%
 +
|-
 +
|data-sort-value="2024-11-3"|{{nowrap|November 3, 2024}}
 +
|data-sort-value="DIPA"|Daesdain Independent Pollsters Association
 +
|1,873
 +
|style="background:#a8b7ff"|52%
 +
|48%
 +
|style="background:#65CAFF; color:#000000;"| 4%
 +
|-
 +
|data-sort-value="2024-10-23"|{{nowrap|October 23, 2024}}
 +
|data-sort-value="NDP"|National Daesdic Polls
 +
|2,976
 +
|style="background:#a8b7ff"|52%
 +
|48%
 +
|style="background:#65CAFF; color:#000000;"| 4%
 +
|-
 +
|data-sort-value="2024-10-15"|{{nowrap|October 15, 2024}}
 +
|data-sort-value="FPFD"|Flash Polls for Daesdain
 +
|1,540
 +
|style="background:#a8b7ff"|55%
 +
|45%
 +
|style="background:#65CAFF; color:#000000;"| 10%
 +
|-
 +
|data-sort-value="2024-10-7"|{{nowrap|October 7, 2024}}
 +
|data-sort-value="DIPA"|Daesdain Independent Pollsters Association
 +
|1,988
 +
|style="background:#a8b7ff"|53%
 +
|47%
 +
|style="background:#65CAFF; color:#000000;"| 6%
 +
|-
 +
|data-sort-value="2024-9-22"|{{nowrap|September 22, 2024}}
 +
|data-sort-value="SSUP"|Saint Siffre University Polls
 +
|1,123
 +
|43%
 +
|style="background:#C6CB56"|57%
 +
|style="background:#F5FF1C; color:#000000;"| 14%
 +
|-
 +
|data-sort-value="2024-9-15"|{{nowrap|September 15, 2024}}
 +
|data-sort-value="NDP"|National Daesdic Polls
 +
|1,988
 +
|style="background:#a8b7ff"|51%
 +
|49%
 +
|style="background:#65CAFF; color:#000000;"| 2%
 +
|-
 +
|data-sort-value="2024-9-10"|{{nowrap|September 10, 2024}}
 +
|data-sort-value="FPFD"|Flash Polls for Daesdain
 +
|1,972
 +
|48%
 +
|style="background:#C6CB56"|52%
 +
|style="background:#F5FF1C; color:#000000;"| 4%
 +
|-
 +
|data-sort-value="2024-9-5"|{{nowrap|September 5, 2024}}
 +
|data-sort-value="NDP"|National Daesdic Polls
 +
|1,746
 +
|style="background:#a8b7ff"|51%
 +
|49%
 +
|style="background:#65CAFF; color:#000000;"| 1%
 +
|- style="background:#E5E5F5;font-style:italic;"
 +
| data-sort-value="2022-07-15" | July 15, 2022
 +
| [[2022 Senedd election]]
 +
|{{n/a}}
 +
|style="background:#a8b7ff"|67.6%
 +
|32.4%
 +
|style="background:#65CAFF; color:#000000;"| 35.2%
 
|}
 
|}
 
{{Ostlandet Parliament elections}}
 
{{Ostlandet Parliament elections}}

Latest revision as of 23:11, 20 December 2024

2024 Ostlandet Parliament election in Daesdain
December 22, 2024 (2024-12-22) 2029 →
All 8 Daesdic seats in the Ostlandet Parliament
Opinion polls
  Peter Dutton May 2018.jpg Mark Drakeford (2016).png
Leader Maelrhys Bach Siarl ap Taliesyn
Party Cynnydd Brawpobl Free Liberal Party
Alliance BDT/DKG PLMO/LTMO
Leader's seat Barf y Llew and Ynys Elk Neuadd Wen
  Leanne Wood AM (27555056394).jpg Brendan Howlin (official portrait) 2020 (cropped).jpg
Leader Nefyn Uprichard Moeldŵr Cadwalader
Party Green Party Protestant Labor Rights Party
Alliance PAÀ/PZOS BLMO/GODRM
Leader's seat Tref Maes Gorllewin y Dref

The 2024 Ostlandet Parliament election in Daesdain is due to take place on December 22, 2024, to elect all 8 members of the Daesdic contingent to the Ostlandet Parliament for the first time. Daesdain is split into 8 constituencies, each electing one member of the Daesdic delegation.

Opinion polling

Primary vote

Last date conducted Polling firm Sample
size 		CB
BDT 		RFP
PLMO 		PW
PAÀ 		PHLP
BLMO 		O/I Lead
December 19, 2024 Daesdain Independent Pollsters Association 2,083 43% 45% 8% 3.5% 0.5% 2%
December 16, 2024 National Daesdic Polls 2,453 43% 44% 7.5% 4.5% 1% 1%
December 13, 2024 Daesdain Independent Pollsters Association 2,100 43% 42% 9% 5% 1% 1%
December 10, 2024 National Daesdic Polls 2,219 44% 43% 8% 4% 1% 1%
December 5, 2024 Saint Siffre University Polls 1,562 43% 42% 8.5% 5.5% 1% 1%
December 1, 2024 Daesdain Independent Pollsters Association 1,591 45% 43% 6% 5.5% 0.5% 2%
November 30, 2024 Flash Polls for Daesdain 1,877 43% 44% 6% 6.5% 0.5% 1%
November 25, 2024 National Daesdic Polls 2,328 46% 42% 6.5% 4.5% 1% 4%
November 15, 2024 Saint Siffre University Polls 1,114 45% 41% 7% 6.5% 0.5% 4%
November 3, 2024 Daesdain Independent Pollsters Association 1,873 48% 43% 5.5% 3% 0.5% 5%
October 23, 2024 National Daesdic Polls 2,976 46% 39% 10% 4% 1% 7%
October 15, 2024 Flash Polls for Daesdain 1,540 45% 38% 10% 6.5% 0.5% 7%
October 7, 2024 Daesdain Independent Pollsters Association 1,988 47% 40% 8.5% 3.5% 1% 7%
September 22, 2024 Saint Siffre University Polls 1,123 40% 43% 14% 2.5% 0.5% 3%
September 15, 2024 National Daesdic Polls 1,988 47% 39% 11% 2% 1% 8%
September 10, 2024 Flash Polls for Daesdain 1,972 44% 42% 10% 3.5% 0.5% 2%
September 5, 2024 National Daesdic Polls 1,746 46% 41% 9.5% 2.5% 1% 5%
July 15, 2022 2022 Senedd election — 64.8% 23.5% 10.4% 0.8% 0.5% 41.3%

Two-party preferred

Last date conducted Polling firm Sample
size 		CB
BDT 		RFP
PLMO 		Lead
December 19, 2024 Daesdain Independent Pollsters Association 2,083 47% 53% 6%
December 16, 2024 National Daesdic Polls 2,453 47% 53% 6%
December 13, 2024 Daesdain Independent Pollsters Association 2,100 48% 52% 4%
December 10, 2024 National Daesdic Polls 2,219 49% 51% 2%
December 5, 2024 Saint Siffre University Polls 1,562 49% 51% 2%
December 1, 2024 Daesdain Independent Pollsters Association 1,591 48% 52% 4%
November 30, 2024 Flash Polls for Daesdain 1,877 51% 49% 2%
November 25, 2024 National Daesdic Polls 2,328 51% 49% 2%
November 15, 2024 Saint Siffre University Polls 1,114 52% 47% 6%
November 3, 2024 Daesdain Independent Pollsters Association 1,873 52% 48% 4%
October 23, 2024 National Daesdic Polls 2,976 52% 48% 4%
October 15, 2024 Flash Polls for Daesdain 1,540 55% 45% 10%
October 7, 2024 Daesdain Independent Pollsters Association 1,988 53% 47% 6%
September 22, 2024 Saint Siffre University Polls 1,123 43% 57% 14%
September 15, 2024 National Daesdic Polls 1,988 51% 49% 2%
September 10, 2024 Flash Polls for Daesdain 1,972 48% 52% 4%
September 5, 2024 National Daesdic Polls 1,746 51% 49% 1%
July 15, 2022 2022 Senedd election — 67.6% 32.4% 35.2%
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